mikedilger on Nostr: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Most_Published_Research_Findings_Are_False In ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Most_Published_Research_Findings_Are_False
In addition to the main result, Ioannidis lists six corollaries for factors that can influence the reliability of published research.
Research findings in a scientific field are less likely to be true,
the smaller the studies conducted.
the smaller the effect sizes.
the greater the number and the lesser the selection of tested relationships.
the greater the flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes.
the greater the financial and other interests and prejudices.
the hotter the scientific field (with more scientific teams involved).
Now with that in mind, think about climate science. I'm not denying anthropogenic global warming, I'm just saying that most reserach over the last 10-20 years, in a field where you cannot have case controlled studies, probably comes to false conclusions.
In addition to the main result, Ioannidis lists six corollaries for factors that can influence the reliability of published research.
Research findings in a scientific field are less likely to be true,
the smaller the studies conducted.
the smaller the effect sizes.
the greater the number and the lesser the selection of tested relationships.
the greater the flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes.
the greater the financial and other interests and prejudices.
the hotter the scientific field (with more scientific teams involved).
Now with that in mind, think about climate science. I'm not denying anthropogenic global warming, I'm just saying that most reserach over the last 10-20 years, in a field where you cannot have case controlled studies, probably comes to false conclusions.