What is Nostr?
Gallatoshi
npub1lh6…q48e
2024-01-08 19:08:16

Gallatoshi on Nostr: “A soft landing covers a multitude of sins.” — Katherine Starbird They wear ...

“A soft landing covers a multitude of sins.” — Katherine Starbird

They wear tailored suits, drive Tesla's to Wall Street, eat at Daniel and have Ph.D.'s in the dismal science. Some went to Harvard.

When they speak, people listen. Like E.F. Hutton. So what are they saying for '24? That rates will go down. Unemployment will peak. Inflation will keep falling. And that jobs will stay robust and the economy will expand.

In other words, a soft landing. A perfect end to a calamitous few years when rates went up 11 times and 1,900%. Which they had to. To kill off inflation. But now rates, like Zarathustra, will descend down the mountain. The chief propeller-heads are calling for a 3.50% target policy rate by the end of '24, and 2.50% by '25. Half the current level.

And the return of cheap cash couldn't come at a better time. To save the Rover Driving Realtors and Rolex hucksters from extinction. And the billions in mortgages that are set to roll this year and next.

What about the economy? American jobs excited on the upside. The economy grew at 4.9% in the last quarter. Wages are growing faster than inflation (5.7% vs. 3.1%). The Fed says a soft landing is in the cards. Good news for Biden. But does anybody else care? Or are they distracted by Tik-Tok, and whether Travis Kelce marries America's pop-sweetheart?

The scaremongers were wrong. No crash. No more rate hikes. Real estate bottomed a year ago and J-Pow righted the ship. The CB'ers meet again in less than two weeks. Rates will stay on pause. The cycle is over.

Yes, even if the orange man becomes President again. Or Putin takes Kiev. Logic will prevail. Nobody wants a hard landing, so it won't happen. Because policy makers need public debt costs to go down (see below). As Larry Lepard said "The blue line produces the income to pay the interest on the red line. See the problem?"

No folks, the central banksters will cave and they will print. Over, and over again. Because they've painted themselves into a corner. With no way out. So hang on to that corn. Because they are going to print 'til their eyes bleed.

They must. To cover their multitude of sins.

Author Public Key
npub1lh6kluzl95c3e74udkc9sdhmwpgky4u2g2vscmptp5r20wx5l35qwjq48e