plebeian on Nostr: So, lets say you want to DCA into #Bitcoin but would like to know what to expect ...
So, lets say you want to DCA into #Bitcoin but would like to know what to expect based on the history. Yes, yes I know. History does not repeat and we can't make reliable predictions about the future based on the past - but what else do we have?
Anyway I have made a simulation, actually 100k simulations to see what is the distribution of results if one starts DCAing into Bitcoin at a random point in the past and what is the result after random number of days.
And this is the result
X axis shows how many days you DCA and Y axis show what is the return on invested capital.
Remember there is 100.000 simulations or dots on this image and the distribution is truly amazing.
I have so many questions about this.
Why are there orderly empty spaces in the graph that do not have any dots?
Why does it look like a wave a surfer would kill for?
WHY DOES IT NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING RANDOM
Anyway if you are interested in numerical statistical results here it is
Anyway I have made a simulation, actually 100k simulations to see what is the distribution of results if one starts DCAing into Bitcoin at a random point in the past and what is the result after random number of days.
And this is the result
X axis shows how many days you DCA and Y axis show what is the return on invested capital.
Remember there is 100.000 simulations or dots on this image and the distribution is truly amazing.
I have so many questions about this.
Why are there orderly empty spaces in the graph that do not have any dots?
Why does it look like a wave a surfer would kill for?
WHY DOES IT NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING RANDOM
Anyway if you are interested in numerical statistical results here it is