Chris Trottier on Nostr: The reason why BlueSky is unlikely to survive is simple: it’s a corporation. Yes, ...
The reason why BlueSky is unlikely to survive is simple: it’s a corporation. Yes, it’s a Public Benefit Corporation, which means it’s supposed to have a social cause attached, but trust me, that label often means little. If the investors want ROI, they’ll get ROI, social consciousness be damned.
Another major problem is that BlueSky operates in a very mature, non-disruptive industry. While “disruptive” might be a buzzword people dislike, the point is relevant here. Think about who BlueSky is competing against: Twitter (X) and Meta. In mature industries, there’s usually a dominant #1 player, a solid #2, and a distant #3 that struggles to survive. For social media, Meta and Twitter will most likely hold those top two spots. Could BlueSky take the #3 position? Unlikely.
Why? Because other companies like TikTok, Snap, or Pinterest—who already have larger user bases and more resources—could easily roll out a Twitter-like service and scale it faster than BlueSky ever could.
The only way BlueSky might survive is by shifting its business model to something like ARM’s. If you’ve ever used a mobile chip, it’s probably based on ARM’s specifications. ARM doesn’t manufacture chips; it licenses its designs to companies like Qualcomm. Historically, ARM didn’t start as a licensing company. It originated with its own computer platform, the Archimedes, which flopped because it couldn’t compete with the open PC ecosystem. Eventually, ARM pivoted to licensing, and that’s how it succeeded.
For BlueSky, their equivalent of ARM’s specs isn’t the BlueSky social network—it’s the AT Protocol. If BlueSky, as a business, wants to survive, it needs other apps and platforms to adopt the AT Protocol. However, that’s incredibly difficult because BlueSky is a corporation, not a co-op, nonprofit, or loose collective.
In reality, if BlueSky can’t secure a dominant position or widespread adoption of its protocol, its survival is doubtful. Most likely, in 5–10 years, BlueSky will either shut down or get acquired by Meta or X (Elon Musk’s Twitter). If that happens, the people who left Twitter for BlueSky will likely find themselves back in Elon Musk’s ecosystem, whether they like it or not.
This is what happens when you hitch your wagon to a growth-focused venture rather than one designed for persistence. The one silver lining is that the AT Protocol is open, so someone else could potentially build on it in the future.
Another major problem is that BlueSky operates in a very mature, non-disruptive industry. While “disruptive” might be a buzzword people dislike, the point is relevant here. Think about who BlueSky is competing against: Twitter (X) and Meta. In mature industries, there’s usually a dominant #1 player, a solid #2, and a distant #3 that struggles to survive. For social media, Meta and Twitter will most likely hold those top two spots. Could BlueSky take the #3 position? Unlikely.
Why? Because other companies like TikTok, Snap, or Pinterest—who already have larger user bases and more resources—could easily roll out a Twitter-like service and scale it faster than BlueSky ever could.
The only way BlueSky might survive is by shifting its business model to something like ARM’s. If you’ve ever used a mobile chip, it’s probably based on ARM’s specifications. ARM doesn’t manufacture chips; it licenses its designs to companies like Qualcomm. Historically, ARM didn’t start as a licensing company. It originated with its own computer platform, the Archimedes, which flopped because it couldn’t compete with the open PC ecosystem. Eventually, ARM pivoted to licensing, and that’s how it succeeded.
For BlueSky, their equivalent of ARM’s specs isn’t the BlueSky social network—it’s the AT Protocol. If BlueSky, as a business, wants to survive, it needs other apps and platforms to adopt the AT Protocol. However, that’s incredibly difficult because BlueSky is a corporation, not a co-op, nonprofit, or loose collective.
In reality, if BlueSky can’t secure a dominant position or widespread adoption of its protocol, its survival is doubtful. Most likely, in 5–10 years, BlueSky will either shut down or get acquired by Meta or X (Elon Musk’s Twitter). If that happens, the people who left Twitter for BlueSky will likely find themselves back in Elon Musk’s ecosystem, whether they like it or not.
This is what happens when you hitch your wagon to a growth-focused venture rather than one designed for persistence. The one silver lining is that the AT Protocol is open, so someone else could potentially build on it in the future.