OgFOMK ArTS on Nostr: When honest men write. Honest men listen. ...
When honest men write. Honest men listen.
quoting nevent1q…99v4Technical analysis is a highly sophisticated scamming art form, where scammy educational/trading companies lure students/"investors" into studying how price can predict price.
By intellectualising the persuit, and layering price with colourful shapes, people are distracted that their tools are all just statistical summaries of PRICE, and ultimately they are predicting FUTURE PRICE based on PAST PRICE, which if you think about it for two seconds, is utterly ridiculous. They are also distracted by this intellectualisation from the fact that they are actually gambling.
Price follows the things that cause something to have any value at all, overlaid by noise. The noise cannot be predicted. Price can be charted and observed, but not predicted. Odds can be set, like a bookie sets odds on a horse race, but studying a bookie's odds book is not giving you an edge, you're just becoming a focussed gambler.
I admit I was scammed by the allure of finding a hack to markets, but I wasn't scammed into believing it was true per se. I was scammed into believing it might be possible, and wasted years in my younger days proving to myself that every case where it looks like it "works" is a statistical illusion. Ultimately, the best traders win because of experience, "feel", and access to speed and capital, NOT the "advantage" of technical analysis.
So here I am trying to save people time.
If I actually spent time showing HOW it's an illusion, then I'm getting scammed into wasting even more time (see Brandolini's Law on debunking nonsense and the disproportionate time it takes, compared to creating nonsense).
Instead, all I'm giving on this topic is the occasional Tweet as a WARNING. Do with it what you want.