waxwing on Nostr: Yes of course that's not realistic, it's designed only to point out the difference in ...
Yes of course that's not realistic, it's designed only to point out the difference in an obvious way.
In the real world, if the polls are say 60-40 for an extended period close to the election, the pred market is likely to be 95-5 or similar, *if* the market finds the polls trustworthy. It is not going to be anywhere near 60-40. Again, they are not measuring the same thing!
Published at
2024-10-16 16:19:01Event JSON
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