VIc FooReeee 🚀 📈 💰 on Nostr: Most of the EU/NATO has imported new fighters from those they couldn't beat... They ...
Most of the EU/NATO has imported new fighters from those they couldn't beat... They are confident they will also win against Russia.
quoting note1ehv…uxepA Danish analyst on the recent commentary on Russia vs. NATO war being likely sooner rather than later. 11+min.
Condensed:
Russia is not likely to risk a straight-up full war with all of NATO.
Instead they'll likely try to set up a scenario in which the unity of NATO is in danger.
In other words, if they can attack a place which other NATO countries find expendable, article 5 will be dead and so will NATO, essentially. A significant enough segment of NATO countries would start waffling on about peace and the attacked country would be left either alone, or with not enough support to really fight off Russia.
A very likely scenario according to this guy: attacking northern Finland.
You'll understand why I'm not thrilled about this^. However, overall I agree with his analysis.
Of course were that to happen, it's almost certain that Norway and Sweden will support Finland. I would say baltic NATO countries are also very likely to give support.
Finland however will not be interested in an off-ramp for Russia, or giving peace a chance any time soon. They will do their damndest to either kick Russia out, or to make them pay for every square metre of land with resources, equipment and blood, blood and some more blood.
Incidentally, it is my belief that Finns are well aware of the possibility of NATO not fulfilling its commitments, if push comes to shove. But even an uncertain Article 5 is better than no Article 5 in a world where Russia is again giving its military excursion passes to its western neighbours.
ETA: I don't agree that USA not showing up will essentially mean return to bilateral relations. I think it's very likely that even in that case a European core would remain in some form or another, and I think it's also likely that core would be strong enough to fend off Russian attacks.
^I have friends living in the area he referenced. It's the this time it's personal electric boogaloo as far as I'm concerned.
https://youtu.be/ZY7GPBSyONU