BitopiaLand on Nostr: 3 ways the US can thwart China’s rise The US has been checking the rise of ...
3 ways the US can thwart China’s rise
The US has been checking the rise of potential great power peers since World War 1 when it first mass mobilised troops to Europe to defeat Wilhelmine Germany. It has checked the rise of potential rival powers 3x more since then.
It went back to Europe in World War 2 to defeat Nazi Germany (although the Soviet Union did most of the fighting) and also stopped Japan in Northeast Asia (where China did most of the fighting).
During the Cold War the US mobilised all its resources to contain the Soviet Union and eventually exhaust it in an economic race.
Now the biggest potential great power competitor of all is making a comeback: China
This is what the US can do to thwart China’s rise:
1. Pre-emptive war
In this scenario the US would launch a war before China is on the same level of military power. Although the US is nominally stronger than China militarily, its military is spread thin all over the world while China has a laser focus on East Asia.
China is also a manufacturing juggernaut with short supply lines to the East-Asian battlefield. This scenario is therefore impossible for the US, especially since China has nuclear bombs.
2. Slowing economic growth
This is the option the US has been opting for since Trump, but comes at the cost of also damaging the US economy.
This only makes sense if the Chinese economy would get damaged more than the US economy, and if the US would find new trading partners while China would not. This makes the outcome very unpredictable…
3. Rollback
In this strategy the US would weaken China by toppling governments that are friendly to China and try to replace them with US-friendly governments. It could even try to make trouble in China itself, for example in Tibet or Xinjiang.
Colour revolutions is the popular name for this kind of strategy and we see them happening all over the world in countries that are either pro-China or pro-Russia or simply want to remain neutral.
Expect the effectiveness of the rollback strategy to diminish over time as countries learn how to protect themselves against them.
The US has been checking the rise of potential great power peers since World War 1 when it first mass mobilised troops to Europe to defeat Wilhelmine Germany. It has checked the rise of potential rival powers 3x more since then.
It went back to Europe in World War 2 to defeat Nazi Germany (although the Soviet Union did most of the fighting) and also stopped Japan in Northeast Asia (where China did most of the fighting).
During the Cold War the US mobilised all its resources to contain the Soviet Union and eventually exhaust it in an economic race.
Now the biggest potential great power competitor of all is making a comeback: China
This is what the US can do to thwart China’s rise:
1. Pre-emptive war
In this scenario the US would launch a war before China is on the same level of military power. Although the US is nominally stronger than China militarily, its military is spread thin all over the world while China has a laser focus on East Asia.
China is also a manufacturing juggernaut with short supply lines to the East-Asian battlefield. This scenario is therefore impossible for the US, especially since China has nuclear bombs.
2. Slowing economic growth
This is the option the US has been opting for since Trump, but comes at the cost of also damaging the US economy.
This only makes sense if the Chinese economy would get damaged more than the US economy, and if the US would find new trading partners while China would not. This makes the outcome very unpredictable…
3. Rollback
In this strategy the US would weaken China by toppling governments that are friendly to China and try to replace them with US-friendly governments. It could even try to make trouble in China itself, for example in Tibet or Xinjiang.
Colour revolutions is the popular name for this kind of strategy and we see them happening all over the world in countries that are either pro-China or pro-Russia or simply want to remain neutral.
Expect the effectiveness of the rollback strategy to diminish over time as countries learn how to protect themselves against them.