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LynAlden / Lyn Alden
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2023-11-30 20:04:29

LynAlden on Nostr: MicroStrategy's bitcoin acquisition strategy has been really on-point. I analyze a ...

MicroStrategy's bitcoin acquisition strategy has been really on-point.

I analyze a lot of stocks and see how they manage their shares. Most companies are rather pro-cyclical in this aspect. They buy back a lot of shares when times are good and shares are expensive, and then when there's a recession they reduce or eliminate their share repurchases, ironically when shares are cheap and it would be better to buy them.

A small percentage of companies have more forward-thinking executives that manage to do this more counter-cyclically. They buy back more shares then they are cheap, and they retain more cash or do other things with their cash when their shares are more expensive.

MicroStrategy has been doing this quite well, except it's about the strategy of issuing shares for bitcoin, which if bitcoin continues to be successful will have more impact overall.

When MicroStrategy wants to buy more bitcoin (which is always), what they seem to be optimizing for is how many bitcoin can they get per share. That's what builds shareholder value in this context. So when MicroStrategy stock is trading at a valuation premium relative to its underlying bitcoin, they can take that opportunity to issue more of these expensive shares, and buy bitcoin with those proceeds. When there is not a valuation premium, they can focus more on just buying bitcoin with incoming cash flow, or exploring other low-cost financing.

So far, they have been really on-point about managing this.

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