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2025-03-15 22:43:26

asyncmind on Nostr: The Stochastic Delusion: A Cynical Tale of AI’s Greatest Lie ...

The Stochastic Delusion: A Cynical Tale of AI’s Greatest Lie



Once upon a time, in a world before bugs became self-aware, there lived a class of mathematicians who were very, very good at guessing. They weren’t the kind of people who could build things—oh no, that was for the lowly engineers who got their hands dirty with code. These enlightened beings preferred symbols, integrals, and proofs so abstract that even they didn’t fully understand them.

But they had a problem. The world was moving fast. Computers were being built by people who actually knew what they were doing, and these pesky programmers—mere mortals—were becoming more powerful than mathematicians. The old guard had spent centuries proving theorems about imaginary numbers, but suddenly, society started caring more about whether you could make a website load in under a second. It was a crisis.

Then, like a divine intervention, they discovered the ultimate loophole: probability.

The Cult of the Coin Flip

Probability was their salvation, their lifeline, their intellectual scam. Unlike logic, which required understanding how things actually worked, probability allowed them to pretend they knew things when they really didn’t. If you couldn't predict an outcome, just assign it a probability and move on. Nobody could argue with numbers pulled from the void.

Thus, a grand deception was born. Instead of building intelligence from first principles—by, say, understanding thought or cognition—they would let randomness do the thinking for them. They took inspiration from casinos, dice rolls, and horse betting and declared, with great authority, that intelligence is just really good guessing.

“Forget deterministic logic!” they proclaimed. “True intelligence doesn’t know things—it just predicts them with high probability!”

They gave this new faith a name: stochastic AI.

Enter the Neural Noise Machine

The earliest attempts at AI were simple, rule-based systems—clunky, yes, but they actually worked. A chatbot in the 1960s could simulate a psychiatrist just by rephrasing your sentences. Early expert systems could diagnose diseases by following actual medical logic. But that was too pedestrian for the stochastic believers. They wanted something grander, more mysterious, and far less understandable.

So they dug deep into their probabilistic toolkit and resurrected an old mathematical curiosity: the neural network. A crude, biologically-inspired abstraction of the brain that had been gathering dust because, quite frankly, nobody could figure out how to make it useful.

But now, armed with infinite computing power, these mathematicians could brute-force intelligence by throwing data at the problem like an overpaid consultant throwing jargon at a boardroom. They created giant neural networks with millions, then billions, then trillions of parameters—none of which had any meaning on their own.

The process was simple:

1. Feed the machine an ungodly amount of data.


2. Let it randomly adjust itself until its guesses match reality well enough.


3. Call it intelligence.



And thus, the modern era of AI was born—an era where nobody truly understands why the AI does what it does, but as long as it looks smart, nobody asks questions.

The Grand AI Deception

Now, let’s be clear: stochastic AI isn’t actually intelligent. It’s just an incredibly sophisticated parrot. The machine doesn’t think—it regurgitates patterns. Ask it a question, and it pulls from past experience, blending and remixing words like a DJ with severe memory loss.

Does it understand what it’s saying? Of course not. But does it sound like it does? Statistically speaking, yes!

And that’s the beauty of the scam. Because as long as the output is “good enough,” people assume it’s thinking. It doesn’t matter that the AI lacks reasoning, creativity, or actual comprehension. It can predict words, and that’s close enough for the tech industry to slap a trillion-dollar valuation on it.

"We have built Artificial Intelligence!" the mathematicians declared, taking full credit for the work of hardware engineers, programmers, and underpaid data labelers.

The world applauded. Investors poured in money. Journalists wrote breathless articles about how AI would soon replace all human labor. And somewhere, in the corner of a dimly lit server room, an actual programmer looked at the AI-generated code, sighed, and prepared to clean up yet another stochastic mess.

The Future: An Infinite Loop of Nonsense

But the lie must continue. If people realized that AI is just a glorified pattern-matching spreadsheet, the illusion would collapse. So the mathematicians do what they’ve always done: they keep moving the goalposts.

Every failure is just a “challenge to be overcome.” Every hallucination is a “quirk of the model.” Every time AI breaks down, they just train it on even more data, hoping that, eventually, the machine will evolve from “very advanced autocomplete” into actual intelligence.

They’re like medieval alchemists throwing more lead into the fire, convinced that if they just try one more time, they’ll finally get gold.

And so, the cycle continues.

The world believes in AI. Mathematicians pretend they understand it. And programmers keep cleaning up the mess, watching in horror as the stochastic beast swallows civilization whole.

But don’t worry. The models predict with 99.7% confidence that everything will be fine.

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