Alfie John [ARCHIVE] on Nostr: 📅 Original date posted:2023-01-01 🗒️ Summary of this message: A sudden ...
📅 Original date posted:2023-01-01
🗒️ Summary of this message: A sudden halving of the Bitcoin system could lead to a significant amount of hashing power shutting down and fees increasing dramatically. However, the market may price in the possibility of a halving.
📝 Original message:On 31 Dec 2022, at 10:28 am, Peter Todd via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>
>> This way:
>>
>> 1. system cannot be played
>> 2. only in case of destructive halving: system waits for the recovery of network security
>
> The immediate danger we have with halvings is that in a competitive market,
> profit margins tend towards marginal costs - the cost to produce an additional
> unit of production - rather than total costs - the cost necessary to recover
> prior and future expenses. Since the halving is a sudden shock to the system,
> under the right conditions we could have a significant amount of hashing power
> just barely able to afford to hash prior to the halving, resulting in all that
> hashing power immediately having to shut down and fees increasing dramatically,
> and likely, chaotically. Your proposal does not address that problem as it can
> only measure difficulty prior to the halving point.
> ... Since the halving is a sudden shock to the system
Is it though? Since everyone knows of the possible outcomes, wouldn't a possible halving be priced in?
> resulting in all that hashing power immediately having to shut down and fees increasing dramatically
Which should cause that hashing power to come back because of this fee increases.
Alfie
--
Alfie John
https://www.alfie <https://www.alfie/>.wtf
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🗒️ Summary of this message: A sudden halving of the Bitcoin system could lead to a significant amount of hashing power shutting down and fees increasing dramatically. However, the market may price in the possibility of a halving.
📝 Original message:On 31 Dec 2022, at 10:28 am, Peter Todd via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>
>> This way:
>>
>> 1. system cannot be played
>> 2. only in case of destructive halving: system waits for the recovery of network security
>
> The immediate danger we have with halvings is that in a competitive market,
> profit margins tend towards marginal costs - the cost to produce an additional
> unit of production - rather than total costs - the cost necessary to recover
> prior and future expenses. Since the halving is a sudden shock to the system,
> under the right conditions we could have a significant amount of hashing power
> just barely able to afford to hash prior to the halving, resulting in all that
> hashing power immediately having to shut down and fees increasing dramatically,
> and likely, chaotically. Your proposal does not address that problem as it can
> only measure difficulty prior to the halving point.
> ... Since the halving is a sudden shock to the system
Is it though? Since everyone knows of the possible outcomes, wouldn't a possible halving be priced in?
> resulting in all that hashing power immediately having to shut down and fees increasing dramatically
Which should cause that hashing power to come back because of this fee increases.
Alfie
--
Alfie John
https://www.alfie <https://www.alfie/>.wtf
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