RolloTreadway on Nostr: npub1g0tuf…3tvm4 I think it's highly unlikely that there will be any nationwide ...
npub1g0tuf634rz4suczwj7kgnecr6cyt0eu9xmp3sp0fku68mqehq4msp3tvm4 (npub1g0t…tvm4) I think it's highly unlikely that there will be any nationwide impact by independent candidates.
There will likely be one or two individual constituencies where an independent is relevant - as with, say, Richard Taylor and Martin Bell in previous elections, and there was an independent who came close to winning a seat in Pembrokeshire in 2015. This year, I imagine Jeremy Corbyn will win as an independent, and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if a local independent did well (though probably not winning) in Ashfield, which has a significant independent presence in local government.
But as a whole? No. The chances of independents changing the results in more than a handful of constituencies is vanishingly small, and I don't think that a wild outlier - a by-election in a safe Labour seat where Labour didn't stand - is significant in that respect.
I think the one notable thing from Rochdale, however, is that Reform returned to irrelevance after their strong-ish showings the other week. The results that they've had in by-elections across the last year or so strongly suggest that their support is coming almost exclusively from disenchanted Tories in Tory-held seats, and they're nowhere near the success in working class seats that their brexity predecessors enjoyed.
There will likely be one or two individual constituencies where an independent is relevant - as with, say, Richard Taylor and Martin Bell in previous elections, and there was an independent who came close to winning a seat in Pembrokeshire in 2015. This year, I imagine Jeremy Corbyn will win as an independent, and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if a local independent did well (though probably not winning) in Ashfield, which has a significant independent presence in local government.
But as a whole? No. The chances of independents changing the results in more than a handful of constituencies is vanishingly small, and I don't think that a wild outlier - a by-election in a safe Labour seat where Labour didn't stand - is significant in that respect.
I think the one notable thing from Rochdale, however, is that Reform returned to irrelevance after their strong-ish showings the other week. The results that they've had in by-elections across the last year or so strongly suggest that their support is coming almost exclusively from disenchanted Tories in Tory-held seats, and they're nowhere near the success in working class seats that their brexity predecessors enjoyed.