Bit 🐳 Ish on Nostr: It looks like OTC supplies are dropping significantly. 100k BTC remaining at OTC ...

It looks like OTC supplies are dropping significantly. 100k BTC remaining at OTC desks. With Saylor purchasing 10k BTC a week, we may see some major on-exchange price squeezes in about 11 weeks all else held equal. All this OTC supply will be long gone by the time any US state gets their SBR in order. Long before any states can get their SBR online and certainly before the federal shitcoin reserve goes into effect.

quoting nevent1q…c0gm

Haven't thought this through fully but seems to me like if etfs are currently sucking up bitcoin at 3x the mining reward rate, we should be getting a price squeeze. But we aren't. Price discovery comes primarily via exchange so are we going to see more exchanges go under soon because they're rehypothecating bitcoin? We know on-exchange bitcoin has decreased significantly recently so if price stays the same, some must be inflating supply by reporting more bitcoin than actually held, no?

If bitcoin is being locked up in etfs at an increasing rate, maybe it makes sense mempool is shrinking as etfs restrict the circulating supply. Once it's locked in the etf, the bitcoin itself doesnt change hands as the paper etfs are traded. I'd imagine this results in less overall onchain transactions. Are we seeing less ordinals and/or other spam-like transactions decrease? How much of a factor is that?

Alternatively, if you dont think there are shenanigans afoot, you can argue irrational markets and bitcoin is severely underpriced at the moment. How else do you explain it?

What happens in ~6 months when various SBRs kick in and further squeeze the circulating supply? Am I wearing bullish-colored glasses here? Cause it seems now is the time to stack hard before markets wake up... unless of course we see another major ftx-like event, in which case we will see a short term price hit due to sentiment, but a long tail perceived supply squeeze due to actual circulating bitcoin suddenly becoming significantly lower than perceived circulating supply.

Someone poke holes in this please....