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bitcoinstr / Samuel #BTC
npub1qzx…xaaq
2024-10-07 11:25:20
in reply to nevent1q…xyj7

bitcoinstr on Nostr: Honestly that is not the best model for pricing btc. Also cost of production is not a ...

Honestly that is not the best model for pricing btc. Also cost of production is not a good way to price #BTC either. Further more, both power law functions and stock to flow are not valid.

The issue wrt pricing #BTC is that there is only one viable use case which is #HODL to protect from inflation.

So I am looking for ways to model that. Couple ideas that seem good:
1. X * global mattress money
2. Y * global debt
3. Z * total equity market cap

So on this case x could be much larger than 1.0 Possibly possibly 10.
Or
Y could be a number between 0.01 and 0.05
Or
Z being some where between 0.05 and 0.10

So saying that in English words, #BITCOIN market cap could ultimately equal 10 times the global mattress money or possibly 5% of the total global debt markets or somewhere between 5% and 10% of the global equity markets.

Since each and every one of these grow annually at somewhere between 3% and 12%, the expectation is that BTC will grow at somewhere between 3% and 10% once it’s reached its established equilibrium
Author Public Key
npub1qzxv58exzw2qnvsc67v32etqt9crw6s33cxx830af08y33t65east5xaaq