Dan C on Nostr: There’s a new phrase you hear a lot “Bitcoin is Macro”. In Macro there’s a ...

There’s a new phrase you hear a lot “Bitcoin is Macro”. In Macro there’s a loose but meaningful belief that if you get the $ direction right, you know where everything else goes.

Along these lines I was looking at 20-60 day beta of Bitcoin to dollar. Roughly if $+1% we see Bitcoin -5%.

So if you know the expected move of Bitcoin to a move in the dollar, on any single day we can see the impact that a piece of big news should have on Bitcoin and compare this to the actual impact to gauge underlying market sentiment.

Let’s say some bad regulatory news out. Same day $ is +1%. So if Bitcoin is -3% (less than implied by $ move of-5%) it suggests bad news discounted and may suggest an underlying bullish trend, bullish positioning or read through.

If $ -1% and Bitcoin only +2% it would give a bearish read. Of course a few days of data would be better than one but you get the point. Anyone look that this? I’ve found it quite useful recently to have conviction to buy weakness despite horrible sentiment on twitter and elsewhere .

Anyone know if any good indicators on this on trading view or elsewhere?