prc30 on Nostr: The War for TikTok in America - #2 Quid pro quo. While this approach suggested here ...
The War for TikTok in America - #2
Quid pro quo. While this approach suggested here is something the Chinese side will warmly welcome, it is also a tactic which can very quickly go sideways for the foreign side of any negotiations.
The primary issue, and this goes to whatever sort of deal might be struck, is what, exactly, will ByteDance “sell” if a deal were to be agreed upon. The secret sauce, the algo, would be demanded by the American buyer. They’ll need to be careful though. China could simply include an older version of the algo, something like providing iOS 13.5 versus the current 18.1 with the buyer being completely unaware of the fact.
More critically though is the issue of assurance that will need to be given to China that Trump and his team won’t change their mind and still move to put on tariffs at a later date. The American side will more than likely need to give up more than is now being discussed. Whenever leverage in a negotiation is predominantly held by the counterparty, the Chinese will work to make certain that up front deliverables – those required at signing – more than compensate the future risks of the counterparty reneging on the deal at a later date. This element looks to be missing at the moment by the Americans.
Finally, the American side of the negotiations needs to fully comprehend that China is more than willing for TikTok to “burn to the ground”. From my vantage point, that, too, hasn’t yet hit home with Trump’s team and is even clear from Trump’s own words. “If I don’t do the deal TikTok is worthless. If I do the deal its worth maybe a trillion dollars.”
This is a process which is only just beginning. Expect more twists and turns, but for now the advantage still goes to China.
Quid pro quo. While this approach suggested here is something the Chinese side will warmly welcome, it is also a tactic which can very quickly go sideways for the foreign side of any negotiations.
The primary issue, and this goes to whatever sort of deal might be struck, is what, exactly, will ByteDance “sell” if a deal were to be agreed upon. The secret sauce, the algo, would be demanded by the American buyer. They’ll need to be careful though. China could simply include an older version of the algo, something like providing iOS 13.5 versus the current 18.1 with the buyer being completely unaware of the fact.
More critically though is the issue of assurance that will need to be given to China that Trump and his team won’t change their mind and still move to put on tariffs at a later date. The American side will more than likely need to give up more than is now being discussed. Whenever leverage in a negotiation is predominantly held by the counterparty, the Chinese will work to make certain that up front deliverables – those required at signing – more than compensate the future risks of the counterparty reneging on the deal at a later date. This element looks to be missing at the moment by the Americans.
Finally, the American side of the negotiations needs to fully comprehend that China is more than willing for TikTok to “burn to the ground”. From my vantage point, that, too, hasn’t yet hit home with Trump’s team and is even clear from Trump’s own words. “If I don’t do the deal TikTok is worthless. If I do the deal its worth maybe a trillion dollars.”
This is a process which is only just beginning. Expect more twists and turns, but for now the advantage still goes to China.