AlboreanNomad on Nostr: A world where total fertility rates (TFR) among the masses fall below replacement ...
A world where total fertility rates (TFR) among the masses fall below replacement levels demands a shift in strategy for constructing new Islamicate cultures. Rather than striving to save or reform existing societies or cultures on a large scale, the focus should shift to ethnogenesis—the creation or emergence of new ethnic or cultural groups.
The "other" now effectively opts out of the future by limiting their cultural footprint in subsequent generations. Such stark differentiation among groups is unprecedented in this form. Historically, all cultural groups had comparable TFRs due to the inevitability of childbirth. Differences in reproduction rates were primarily linked to societal rank and wealth rather than divergent cultural codes.
This disparity in fertility today means that simply having four children allows a family to exert disproportionate influence on the cultural landscape of the future—especially when factoring in other means of cultural influence.
Strengthening groups that already align with a shared cultural framework is a more efficient strategy than attempting to reverse low TFR trends among the broader population or trying to convert others to our way of life.
Ambitious and capable elites, particularly those within the top 20% of society, are notably flexible in their loyalties. Their allegiance often shifts when they perceive a new group demonstrating vitality and a clear path to future dominance. This dynamic includes secular Muslims who lack strong ideological commitment to the prevailing liberal ideologies held by current ruling elites.
Such individuals will adapt and align themselves once they sense a shift in cultural and societal momentum. Therefore, a wise polity should prioritize empowering groups that exhibit promise and fit within the desired cultural framework. These groups will form the nucleus of a future elite, around which secular, nominal Muslims are likely to gravitate in due course.
The "other" now effectively opts out of the future by limiting their cultural footprint in subsequent generations. Such stark differentiation among groups is unprecedented in this form. Historically, all cultural groups had comparable TFRs due to the inevitability of childbirth. Differences in reproduction rates were primarily linked to societal rank and wealth rather than divergent cultural codes.
This disparity in fertility today means that simply having four children allows a family to exert disproportionate influence on the cultural landscape of the future—especially when factoring in other means of cultural influence.
Strengthening groups that already align with a shared cultural framework is a more efficient strategy than attempting to reverse low TFR trends among the broader population or trying to convert others to our way of life.
Ambitious and capable elites, particularly those within the top 20% of society, are notably flexible in their loyalties. Their allegiance often shifts when they perceive a new group demonstrating vitality and a clear path to future dominance. This dynamic includes secular Muslims who lack strong ideological commitment to the prevailing liberal ideologies held by current ruling elites.
Such individuals will adapt and align themselves once they sense a shift in cultural and societal momentum. Therefore, a wise polity should prioritize empowering groups that exhibit promise and fit within the desired cultural framework. These groups will form the nucleus of a future elite, around which secular, nominal Muslims are likely to gravitate in due course.