BitcoinAlchemist on Nostr: The issue with prediction markets is that they are centralized trusted third parties ...
The issue with prediction markets is that they are centralized trusted third parties that aggregate bets to forecast event outcomes. Centralized helps because it enables more aggregation of information, but also it opens the market to threats from hostile agents.
I've thought about how to do decentralized prediction markets, and I've found that simplistic "betting markets" are possible, but not LMSR based prediction markets that provide forecasting alongside betting.
Published at
2024-11-14 21:31:09Event JSON
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"content": "The issue with prediction markets is that they are centralized trusted third parties that aggregate bets to forecast event outcomes. Centralized helps because it enables more aggregation of information, but also it opens the market to threats from hostile agents. \n\nI've thought about how to do decentralized prediction markets, and I've found that simplistic \"betting markets\" are possible, but not LMSR based prediction markets that provide forecasting alongside betting.",
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