Dan Luu on Nostr: Is this true? As someone who hasn't seriously studied the history of technology, it ...

Is this true? As someone who hasn't seriously studied the history of technology, it doesn't feel true to me.

Two reasons this feels untrue:

1. Before there were semiconductors, exponential improvements in technologies were common. It would be extraordinary if this is now false except when semiconductors were involved. The overwhelmingly likely mechanism for that would be if semiconductors caused such fast improvements in everything that non-semiconductor improvements are a rounding error, but