BitcoinFriday on Nostr: 🧠Quote(s) of the week: "People work 100,000 hours throughout their lifetime to ...
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"People work 100,000 hours throughout their lifetime to earn money and then get robbed by inflation without knowing. If they’d spend 100 hours (0.1%) of that time to learn about money their lives would change drastically." - Bitcoin for Freedom
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Satoshi Nakamoto's earliest collaborator Martii 'Sirius' Malmi just released their entire email history.
At 120 pages, it's the most significant addition to the archives of Bitcoin's unknown inventor.
Here are the most important new findings:
https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1761040092087337196
I urge you to read that thread by Pete Rizzo. What you will learn, giving some insights into the mind of Satoshi, revealing early Bitcoin insights, including the origin of "cryptocurrency" terms and views on anonymity.
Caitlin Long is pointing this out oh so eloquently: https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1761072087064629507
➡️The Texas Blockchain Council and Riot Platforms are fighting back against the Biden Administration’s emergency request to collect sensitive data regarding Bitcoin miners' energy consumption by filing a lawsuit to halt the measure.
"The Bitcoin network is receiving an average of $607m per day of new investor demand while this is being met by $46m per day of new supply in the form of new coins being mined. New demand is calculated by a change in the realized cap, the accumulated price investors paid for their BTC. This method underestimates the true demand due to off-chain buy/sells not being accounted for." Willy Woo
Repeat after me, hello supply shock! We are now 60 days away from seeing the new supply being halved.
➡️MicroStrategy acquires 3,000 Bitcoin for $155 million. This brings their total stack to 193,000 BTC, acquired at an average price of $31,544 per bitcoin.
➡️"Today, over $5.5 trillion in assets sits in state pension funds.
If even 3% of AUM in state pensions leaks into the Bitcoin ETF that would equal $165 billion of new inflows.
Since launching, the Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $8 billion of inflows.
I’ll let you do the math." - Dennis Porter
➡️"Fidelity and Accenture hosted 100 bank executives and asset managers in Paris last week to learn more about Bitcoin and how to prepare as an institution." -Bitcoin Archive
➡️Bitcoin price surged 23% this month, driven by US ETF approvals and strong buying during US trading hours (12%), according to Matrixport. European (7%) and Asian (4%) markets also contributed to the gains.
➡️Bitcoin has passed all-time highs in at least fourteen countries. In fourteen countries representing 1B+ people and $7T+ in GDP, Bitcoin is becoming lifeboat. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1760638270462104048
This is the power of a decentralized, global store of value. Remember, Bitcoin has no top because fiat printing has no end.
➡️"For those considering Bitcoin. Remember to hold for 4 years. It's never returned below 30% annualized for a 4-year investment, no matter how badly timed...
BTC: 30-60%, 75% drawdowns
SP500: 10%, 35% drawdowns
Real Estate: 10%, 30%+ drawdowns
VC Funds: 15%-27%, 10-year lock up" - Willy Woo
➡️Last week we received the news that Reddit bought Bitcoin with its excess cash and may continue to do so with future cash flows.
➡️The European Central Bank's Bitcoin bashing article gets Community Noted into oblivion. Gotta love it!
The bank claims Bitcoin has "failed on its promise" and that the ETF is proof. https://twitter.com/ecb/status/1760580254920212640
Meanwhile, the Euro has lost 99.5% of its value vs. Bitcoin in less than 10 years. (picture 1)
97% of all trading days are in profit for Bitcoin.
While the ECB's skepticism on Bitcoin is noted, it's essential to remember that value is often subjective and ever-evolving. The Euro vs Bitcoin chart can offer insights, but the true worth of Bitcoin goes beyond mere numbers.
"In politics, a common tactic of deflecting attention from your own non-performance is to spread misinformation about a competitor. With a renewed attack on Bitcoin on the same day as its worst performance in 2 decades, it seems the ECB is recycling the same strategy."
➡️On the 23rd of February, someone sent 1.3 billion dollars of Bitcoin for a $2 fee, and no one could stop it. But he, the ECB said it's slow and expensive, right?! Now try that with fiat.
➡️Non-ETF entity makes $1.3B Bitcoin purchase (26.2K BTC at $51K).
➡️"Bitcoin as exponential gold: In the past I’ve explored Bitcoin mostly from a demand perspective, studying S-curves to generate a demand-driven valuation framework. Today I’m presenting my supply-driven approach, which is a variation on the stock-to-flow (S2F) concept."
Nice conceptualization of Bitcoin as digital gold on steroids from Jurrien Timmer. Read the full thread here: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1760677789865512980
➡️Bitcoin whales move 18K Bitcoin ($1B) off Coinbase, splitting it into cold wallets ranging from $45M to $171M
➡️Genesis is selling 1B dollars worth of Bitcoin this month and nobody seems to notice or care. Why not? $1B GBTC outflow = 2 days of ETF inflows.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings reach $6.5 billion. They now match 2/3 of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stack.
- "The Bitcoin ETFs bought $1,020,100,000 of Bitcoin this week.
That is $255,025,000 of bought Bitcoin per trading day.
That is $64,521,325,000 of demand per year.
There will be approximately 191,250 Bitcoin issued in the next 365 days.
That is $337,366 of ETF money coming in per Bitcoin issued.
What happens if there is a market multiple of 10:1, 100:1, or 500:1?...
What happens when demand for Bitcoin ETFs increases at all?...
What happens at the next halving?
Wake up. Get off zero."- Luke Broyles
➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF just broke $1 Billion in trading volume for the day.
➡️BitWise Bitcoin ETF is now available for recommendation by Registered Investment Advisors of $30B in assets, one of the largest advisor networks in the USA- BitWise CEO
More ETF news...
➡️Four spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved on the $30 BILLION advisor network platform by the Carson Group.
➡️Another week of Bitcoin ETF inflows ($777mm) vs Gold ETF outflows (-$608mm).
Bitcoin ETFs saw an additional inflow of $265mm, while Gold ETFs saw an outflow of -$124mm on Friday. Every passing day brings the flippening closer.
➡️"Bitcoin as Legal Tender: El Salvador's Groundbreaking Decision and the Salvadorian Mainstream Media's Reaction"
Free report on El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption media coverage post-2021 law.
Insights from:
→ 1,440 articles
→ 5 major outlets
→ 152 reporters
Link below:
https://bitcoinperception.com/bitcoin-as-legal-tender-el-salvadors-groundbreaking-decision-and-the-salvadorian-mainstream-medias-reaction/
➡️JP Morgan announced plans to offer an actively managed Bitcoin fund to its private wealth clients. Wait what? The man, CEO Jamie Dimon, who lied to your face about Bitcoin being a Ponzi and wanting the government to ban it just 3months ago is now offering Bitcoin services to his rich clients.
Shocking!
➡️We've officially mined 93.5% of all the Bitcoin.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have core PCE inflation, house prices, and consumer confidence. In Europe, it’s the euro area consumer confidence, French, German, and Spanish flash inflation, and UK lending data. In Asia, with the China PMIs, Indonesia, Japan CPI and the RBNZ meeting
👉🏽Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Russia, South Korea, Australia, Spain, Indonesia, Turkey, Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia.
👉🏽The top 10% of stocks in the US now reflect ~75% of the entire market.
This is, by far, the most concentrated stock market since the Great Depression in 1931. (picture 2)
In the Dot-com bubble of 2001, the concentration of the top 10% of stocks peaked at ~72%.
Even before the 2008 Financial Crisis, the concentration of the top 10% of stocks peaked at ~66%.
On average, the top 10% of stocks reflect 64% of the entire stock market. -TKL
"- Jeff Bezos sold $8.5B of Amazon stock
bbc.com/news/business-…
- Walton family members sold $4.5B of Walmart stock
x.com/TrackInsiders_…
- Meta insiders sold $232M of stock in 2024
marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/…
- Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO since 2006, first-time ever sold $150M of company stock. He announced in Oct he would sell 1 million of his 8.6 million shares for “financial diversification and tax-planning purposes”.
reuters.com/markets/us/jpm…
- Total household debt rose by $212B to $17.5T in Q4 2023 including $1.13T in credit card debt
newyorkfed.org/microeconomics…
- The US Government borrowed $260B last month equating to $3.1T annually with an overall debt of $34.3T
x.com/KobeissiLetter…
- The last time the market cap of the top 10% of stocks was this high was in early in the Great Depression
x.com/zerohedge/stat…
- The "Magnificent 7" have a market cap of $11.7T accounting for over 25% of the S&P 500 & more than that of Japan and Germany's exchanges combined
And, someone just bought 26,139 Bitcoin catapulting themselves to #29 on the rich list with $1.33B
bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/addres…
What do the big boys know that we don't?"
🏦Banks:
On the 22nd of February: "It was a great day for the Swiss National Bank which first printed money out of thin air, then bought 148,900 shares of SMCI and today made a cool $36 million profit"- Zerohedge
This is the absurdity of fiat money just print some worthless money and buy real assets with them. (please read my weekly recap from the 19th of February, segment Bitcoin, the statement made by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. You will understand the above absurdity.) https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvzqrfawsca7eydfdgmsupyhxqfxrura28fdude4pvpmdwcm3mq0qzyq78msk9slhvupg0h3jcpxckp8geyplcyhwhva2tnyz7nj5q2ep2sqmlzax
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"While everyone was busy watching Nvidia, the US borrowed another $260 BILLION last month.
On an annualized basis, this puts the US on track to borrow ~$3.1 trillion in 2024.
Total US debt now stands at a record $34.33 trillion, or 2.8 TIMES the market cap of the Magnificent 7. (picture 3)
Over the last 4 years alone, total US debt is officially up $11 trillion and counting.
At the current rate, we will see $40 trillion in US debt by 2026 and that assumes a "soft landing."
Just imagine what would happen if we entered a recession." - TKL
I don't think we will see a recession no sooner than Q4 24'. The market needs to be at its best during the US election.
Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet is now at its lowest level since March 2021, down $1.4 trillion from its peak in April 2022.
How much more QT is needed to unwind the massive QE from March 2020- April 2022?
$3.4 trillion.
Never gonna happen!
I don't put a date on it, but we will see a FED balance sheet hit $15 trillion in the 'nearby' future.
👉🏽Germany's manufacturing downturn unexpectedly deepens amid falling demand at home and abroad. S&P Global’s PMI for the country’s industrial sector dropped to 42.3 from 45.5 the previous month – well below any economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The picture was brighter in France, where the contraction eased much more than analysts had predicted. Companies reported improving demand while expanding their workforce.
Read the full article here: https://archive.ph/2tQRL
The funniest part of the above statement..." unexpectedly".
"As if Germany wouldn’t have enough problems, in just a few years it will be hit by a massive pensions and healthcare entitlement crisis" (picture 4)
Now I might go a step too far but the picture below is (maybe) the reason why 'refugees are welcomed' in (West) Europe. Just a thought...
A dangerous cocktail, an energy cliff, a demographic cliff, and a cultural cliff hitting at the same time.
Europe right now: Either entitlements gonna be cut or taxes and/or immigration will be increased.
Oh by the way... one more fun fact about Europe...
"A reminder that as a European you aren't allowed to buy
SPY ETF
GLD ETF
SLV ETF
Any American Bitcoin ETF
What a world we are living in... Europe is becoming more and more totalitarian, opt out while you can.."
👉🏽https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1760015120829165877
In other words, the government is going to continue f***ing up the economy until society reaches its breaking point. Noted!
👉🏽"In case you missed it: Global debt surged by >$15tn in 2023 reaching a new record high of $313tn. 55% of this rise originated from mature markets, mainly driven by the US, France, & Germany. BUT the global debt-to-GDP ratio saw a decline of ~2ppts to 330% in 2023, according to IIF. This marked the third consecutive annual drop." - Holger Zschaepitz.
(picture 5)
Now let's do the increase in asset values....sure that is driven by technology and productivity right? Yes! but don't count out the fact that the global debt is up almost $250 trillion over the last 20 years. I firmly believe that the developed world (debt) is going to sink into the developing world...eventually.
I am just going to leave this here.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1761492225542717526
Nothing stops the train!
What the world needs:
👉🏽"President of Argentina Javier Milei will be introducing a bill to Congress to jail any Central Bank official who orders the Central Bank to print money to cover Argentina's deficits.
Milei will be defining seigniorage as a criminal offense with the objective of not being "able to issue money to finance the Treasury."
"The bill will define seigniorage as a criminal offense and in case the Central Bank finances the treasury, either directly or indirectly, the president of the Central Bank, the board of directors, the president of the Nation, and the officials who vote for it would end up in jail," Milei said during an interview.
"We have a strong commitment in the fiscal area, zero deficit is not negotiable."
"If you have zero deficit, you do not take on more debt. By not taking on more debt, the debt–product ratio becomes constant or decreasing and the counterpart of that is that you become more solvent." - Collin Rugg
Ergo: No more printing. No more spending. Learn to manage money better.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Another great newsletter by Lyn Alden
https://www.lynalden.com/february-2024-newsletter/
"The tighter the Fed gets in terms of monetary policy, the more it increases the government's interest expense, which leads to larger overall deficits, which is generally stimulatory and inflationary for the economy!"
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
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"People work 100,000 hours throughout their lifetime to earn money and then get robbed by inflation without knowing. If they’d spend 100 hours (0.1%) of that time to learn about money their lives would change drastically." - Bitcoin for Freedom
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Satoshi Nakamoto's earliest collaborator Martii 'Sirius' Malmi just released their entire email history.
At 120 pages, it's the most significant addition to the archives of Bitcoin's unknown inventor.
Here are the most important new findings:
https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1761040092087337196
I urge you to read that thread by Pete Rizzo. What you will learn, giving some insights into the mind of Satoshi, revealing early Bitcoin insights, including the origin of "cryptocurrency" terms and views on anonymity.
Caitlin Long is pointing this out oh so eloquently: https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1761072087064629507
➡️The Texas Blockchain Council and Riot Platforms are fighting back against the Biden Administration’s emergency request to collect sensitive data regarding Bitcoin miners' energy consumption by filing a lawsuit to halt the measure.
"The Bitcoin network is receiving an average of $607m per day of new investor demand while this is being met by $46m per day of new supply in the form of new coins being mined. New demand is calculated by a change in the realized cap, the accumulated price investors paid for their BTC. This method underestimates the true demand due to off-chain buy/sells not being accounted for." Willy Woo
Repeat after me, hello supply shock! We are now 60 days away from seeing the new supply being halved.
➡️MicroStrategy acquires 3,000 Bitcoin for $155 million. This brings their total stack to 193,000 BTC, acquired at an average price of $31,544 per bitcoin.
➡️"Today, over $5.5 trillion in assets sits in state pension funds.
If even 3% of AUM in state pensions leaks into the Bitcoin ETF that would equal $165 billion of new inflows.
Since launching, the Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $8 billion of inflows.
I’ll let you do the math." - Dennis Porter
➡️"Fidelity and Accenture hosted 100 bank executives and asset managers in Paris last week to learn more about Bitcoin and how to prepare as an institution." -Bitcoin Archive
➡️Bitcoin price surged 23% this month, driven by US ETF approvals and strong buying during US trading hours (12%), according to Matrixport. European (7%) and Asian (4%) markets also contributed to the gains.
➡️Bitcoin has passed all-time highs in at least fourteen countries. In fourteen countries representing 1B+ people and $7T+ in GDP, Bitcoin is becoming lifeboat. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1760638270462104048
This is the power of a decentralized, global store of value. Remember, Bitcoin has no top because fiat printing has no end.
➡️"For those considering Bitcoin. Remember to hold for 4 years. It's never returned below 30% annualized for a 4-year investment, no matter how badly timed...
BTC: 30-60%, 75% drawdowns
SP500: 10%, 35% drawdowns
Real Estate: 10%, 30%+ drawdowns
VC Funds: 15%-27%, 10-year lock up" - Willy Woo
➡️Last week we received the news that Reddit bought Bitcoin with its excess cash and may continue to do so with future cash flows.
➡️The European Central Bank's Bitcoin bashing article gets Community Noted into oblivion. Gotta love it!
The bank claims Bitcoin has "failed on its promise" and that the ETF is proof. https://twitter.com/ecb/status/1760580254920212640
Meanwhile, the Euro has lost 99.5% of its value vs. Bitcoin in less than 10 years. (picture 1)
97% of all trading days are in profit for Bitcoin.
While the ECB's skepticism on Bitcoin is noted, it's essential to remember that value is often subjective and ever-evolving. The Euro vs Bitcoin chart can offer insights, but the true worth of Bitcoin goes beyond mere numbers.
"In politics, a common tactic of deflecting attention from your own non-performance is to spread misinformation about a competitor. With a renewed attack on Bitcoin on the same day as its worst performance in 2 decades, it seems the ECB is recycling the same strategy."
➡️On the 23rd of February, someone sent 1.3 billion dollars of Bitcoin for a $2 fee, and no one could stop it. But he, the ECB said it's slow and expensive, right?! Now try that with fiat.
➡️Non-ETF entity makes $1.3B Bitcoin purchase (26.2K BTC at $51K).
➡️"Bitcoin as exponential gold: In the past I’ve explored Bitcoin mostly from a demand perspective, studying S-curves to generate a demand-driven valuation framework. Today I’m presenting my supply-driven approach, which is a variation on the stock-to-flow (S2F) concept."
Nice conceptualization of Bitcoin as digital gold on steroids from Jurrien Timmer. Read the full thread here: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1760677789865512980
➡️Bitcoin whales move 18K Bitcoin ($1B) off Coinbase, splitting it into cold wallets ranging from $45M to $171M
➡️Genesis is selling 1B dollars worth of Bitcoin this month and nobody seems to notice or care. Why not? $1B GBTC outflow = 2 days of ETF inflows.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings reach $6.5 billion. They now match 2/3 of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stack.
- "The Bitcoin ETFs bought $1,020,100,000 of Bitcoin this week.
That is $255,025,000 of bought Bitcoin per trading day.
That is $64,521,325,000 of demand per year.
There will be approximately 191,250 Bitcoin issued in the next 365 days.
That is $337,366 of ETF money coming in per Bitcoin issued.
What happens if there is a market multiple of 10:1, 100:1, or 500:1?...
What happens when demand for Bitcoin ETFs increases at all?...
What happens at the next halving?
Wake up. Get off zero."- Luke Broyles
➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF just broke $1 Billion in trading volume for the day.
➡️BitWise Bitcoin ETF is now available for recommendation by Registered Investment Advisors of $30B in assets, one of the largest advisor networks in the USA- BitWise CEO
More ETF news...
➡️Four spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved on the $30 BILLION advisor network platform by the Carson Group.
➡️Another week of Bitcoin ETF inflows ($777mm) vs Gold ETF outflows (-$608mm).
Bitcoin ETFs saw an additional inflow of $265mm, while Gold ETFs saw an outflow of -$124mm on Friday. Every passing day brings the flippening closer.
➡️"Bitcoin as Legal Tender: El Salvador's Groundbreaking Decision and the Salvadorian Mainstream Media's Reaction"
Free report on El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption media coverage post-2021 law.
Insights from:
→ 1,440 articles
→ 5 major outlets
→ 152 reporters
Link below:
https://bitcoinperception.com/bitcoin-as-legal-tender-el-salvadors-groundbreaking-decision-and-the-salvadorian-mainstream-medias-reaction/
➡️JP Morgan announced plans to offer an actively managed Bitcoin fund to its private wealth clients. Wait what? The man, CEO Jamie Dimon, who lied to your face about Bitcoin being a Ponzi and wanting the government to ban it just 3months ago is now offering Bitcoin services to his rich clients.
Shocking!
➡️We've officially mined 93.5% of all the Bitcoin.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have core PCE inflation, house prices, and consumer confidence. In Europe, it’s the euro area consumer confidence, French, German, and Spanish flash inflation, and UK lending data. In Asia, with the China PMIs, Indonesia, Japan CPI and the RBNZ meeting
👉🏽Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Russia, South Korea, Australia, Spain, Indonesia, Turkey, Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia.
👉🏽The top 10% of stocks in the US now reflect ~75% of the entire market.
This is, by far, the most concentrated stock market since the Great Depression in 1931. (picture 2)
In the Dot-com bubble of 2001, the concentration of the top 10% of stocks peaked at ~72%.
Even before the 2008 Financial Crisis, the concentration of the top 10% of stocks peaked at ~66%.
On average, the top 10% of stocks reflect 64% of the entire stock market. -TKL
"- Jeff Bezos sold $8.5B of Amazon stock
bbc.com/news/business-…
- Walton family members sold $4.5B of Walmart stock
x.com/TrackInsiders_…
- Meta insiders sold $232M of stock in 2024
marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/…
- Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO since 2006, first-time ever sold $150M of company stock. He announced in Oct he would sell 1 million of his 8.6 million shares for “financial diversification and tax-planning purposes”.
reuters.com/markets/us/jpm…
- Total household debt rose by $212B to $17.5T in Q4 2023 including $1.13T in credit card debt
newyorkfed.org/microeconomics…
- The US Government borrowed $260B last month equating to $3.1T annually with an overall debt of $34.3T
x.com/KobeissiLetter…
- The last time the market cap of the top 10% of stocks was this high was in early in the Great Depression
x.com/zerohedge/stat…
- The "Magnificent 7" have a market cap of $11.7T accounting for over 25% of the S&P 500 & more than that of Japan and Germany's exchanges combined
And, someone just bought 26,139 Bitcoin catapulting themselves to #29 on the rich list with $1.33B
bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/addres…
What do the big boys know that we don't?"
🏦Banks:
On the 22nd of February: "It was a great day for the Swiss National Bank which first printed money out of thin air, then bought 148,900 shares of SMCI and today made a cool $36 million profit"- Zerohedge
This is the absurdity of fiat money just print some worthless money and buy real assets with them. (please read my weekly recap from the 19th of February, segment Bitcoin, the statement made by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. You will understand the above absurdity.) https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvzqrfawsca7eydfdgmsupyhxqfxrura28fdude4pvpmdwcm3mq0qzyq78msk9slhvupg0h3jcpxckp8geyplcyhwhva2tnyz7nj5q2ep2sqmlzax
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"While everyone was busy watching Nvidia, the US borrowed another $260 BILLION last month.
On an annualized basis, this puts the US on track to borrow ~$3.1 trillion in 2024.
Total US debt now stands at a record $34.33 trillion, or 2.8 TIMES the market cap of the Magnificent 7. (picture 3)
Over the last 4 years alone, total US debt is officially up $11 trillion and counting.
At the current rate, we will see $40 trillion in US debt by 2026 and that assumes a "soft landing."
Just imagine what would happen if we entered a recession." - TKL
I don't think we will see a recession no sooner than Q4 24'. The market needs to be at its best during the US election.
Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet is now at its lowest level since March 2021, down $1.4 trillion from its peak in April 2022.
How much more QT is needed to unwind the massive QE from March 2020- April 2022?
$3.4 trillion.
Never gonna happen!
I don't put a date on it, but we will see a FED balance sheet hit $15 trillion in the 'nearby' future.
👉🏽Germany's manufacturing downturn unexpectedly deepens amid falling demand at home and abroad. S&P Global’s PMI for the country’s industrial sector dropped to 42.3 from 45.5 the previous month – well below any economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The picture was brighter in France, where the contraction eased much more than analysts had predicted. Companies reported improving demand while expanding their workforce.
Read the full article here: https://archive.ph/2tQRL
The funniest part of the above statement..." unexpectedly".
"As if Germany wouldn’t have enough problems, in just a few years it will be hit by a massive pensions and healthcare entitlement crisis" (picture 4)
Now I might go a step too far but the picture below is (maybe) the reason why 'refugees are welcomed' in (West) Europe. Just a thought...
A dangerous cocktail, an energy cliff, a demographic cliff, and a cultural cliff hitting at the same time.
Europe right now: Either entitlements gonna be cut or taxes and/or immigration will be increased.
Oh by the way... one more fun fact about Europe...
"A reminder that as a European you aren't allowed to buy
SPY ETF
GLD ETF
SLV ETF
Any American Bitcoin ETF
What a world we are living in... Europe is becoming more and more totalitarian, opt out while you can.."
👉🏽https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1760015120829165877
In other words, the government is going to continue f***ing up the economy until society reaches its breaking point. Noted!
👉🏽"In case you missed it: Global debt surged by >$15tn in 2023 reaching a new record high of $313tn. 55% of this rise originated from mature markets, mainly driven by the US, France, & Germany. BUT the global debt-to-GDP ratio saw a decline of ~2ppts to 330% in 2023, according to IIF. This marked the third consecutive annual drop." - Holger Zschaepitz.
(picture 5)
Now let's do the increase in asset values....sure that is driven by technology and productivity right? Yes! but don't count out the fact that the global debt is up almost $250 trillion over the last 20 years. I firmly believe that the developed world (debt) is going to sink into the developing world...eventually.
I am just going to leave this here.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1761492225542717526
Nothing stops the train!
What the world needs:
👉🏽"President of Argentina Javier Milei will be introducing a bill to Congress to jail any Central Bank official who orders the Central Bank to print money to cover Argentina's deficits.
Milei will be defining seigniorage as a criminal offense with the objective of not being "able to issue money to finance the Treasury."
"The bill will define seigniorage as a criminal offense and in case the Central Bank finances the treasury, either directly or indirectly, the president of the Central Bank, the board of directors, the president of the Nation, and the officials who vote for it would end up in jail," Milei said during an interview.
"We have a strong commitment in the fiscal area, zero deficit is not negotiable."
"If you have zero deficit, you do not take on more debt. By not taking on more debt, the debt–product ratio becomes constant or decreasing and the counterpart of that is that you become more solvent." - Collin Rugg
Ergo: No more printing. No more spending. Learn to manage money better.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Another great newsletter by Lyn Alden
https://www.lynalden.com/february-2024-newsletter/
"The tighter the Fed gets in terms of monetary policy, the more it increases the government's interest expense, which leads to larger overall deficits, which is generally stimulatory and inflationary for the economy!"
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My savings account: Bitcoin
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