MeetKevin on Nostr: ⚠️ A recession may be closer than thought. ⚠️ #MarketCrash ✅ This chart ...
⚠️ A recession may be closer than thought. ⚠️ #MarketCrash
✅ This chart should scare you. Investible cash is at record lows. (Most just pay attention to money market funds, but forget that those can include bank or corporate deposits - not available to "buy the dip.")
✅ AI is great, it increases product quality and human productivity. However, it's unlikely to be profitable "for years" (per Zuckerberg). Therefore, if the market corrects, we expect mega caps will SLASH CapEx spending plans instantaneously. That could destroy chip plays, accelerating a downturn.
✅ An accelerated market correction, amplified by election uncertainty and geopolitical/war risks, will lead to rapid joblessness.
✅ An accelerated market correction, amplified by election uncertainty and geopolitical/war risks, will lead to rapid joblessness. We fear the pain is JUST starting. What changed? Good news started turning into BAD news. This last happened in February of 2022 and the NASDAQ 100 lost 39% from peak. Powell going dovish AND great earnings this week leading to a selloff today is a sign of MAJOR derisking coming and it's not just today - it's the SAME issue we've seen since July 11th. It's just getting started sadly.
✅ Joblessness WHILE people lose their a$$ on the stock market between now and the election == SERIOUS, SERIOUS PAIN.
Look, we'd rather be wrong. If the market goes up, fantastic. But we're starting to position with larger hedges or more cash to sit on the sidelines. We'll come back after the election, unless we're deep in a recession by then.
✅ We believe everyone should:
➡️ Raise cash.
➡️ Avoid small caps.
➡️ Increase your income while you still can.
➡️ Gain skills to make you unfirable.
Maybe this is all just a fire drill. Maybe there's nothing. But we'd rather be safe than sorry. And none of this is personalized advice. Good luck.
P.S. Fair disclaimer: I have positions in $BITI, $TNA, and $SQQQ to hedge longs. May need to haircut longs much more than thought. TBD :( :( :(
#bitcoin #primal #finance
✅ This chart should scare you. Investible cash is at record lows. (Most just pay attention to money market funds, but forget that those can include bank or corporate deposits - not available to "buy the dip.")
✅ AI is great, it increases product quality and human productivity. However, it's unlikely to be profitable "for years" (per Zuckerberg). Therefore, if the market corrects, we expect mega caps will SLASH CapEx spending plans instantaneously. That could destroy chip plays, accelerating a downturn.
✅ An accelerated market correction, amplified by election uncertainty and geopolitical/war risks, will lead to rapid joblessness.
✅ An accelerated market correction, amplified by election uncertainty and geopolitical/war risks, will lead to rapid joblessness. We fear the pain is JUST starting. What changed? Good news started turning into BAD news. This last happened in February of 2022 and the NASDAQ 100 lost 39% from peak. Powell going dovish AND great earnings this week leading to a selloff today is a sign of MAJOR derisking coming and it's not just today - it's the SAME issue we've seen since July 11th. It's just getting started sadly.
✅ Joblessness WHILE people lose their a$$ on the stock market between now and the election == SERIOUS, SERIOUS PAIN.
Look, we'd rather be wrong. If the market goes up, fantastic. But we're starting to position with larger hedges or more cash to sit on the sidelines. We'll come back after the election, unless we're deep in a recession by then.
✅ We believe everyone should:
➡️ Raise cash.
➡️ Avoid small caps.
➡️ Increase your income while you still can.
➡️ Gain skills to make you unfirable.
Maybe this is all just a fire drill. Maybe there's nothing. But we'd rather be safe than sorry. And none of this is personalized advice. Good luck.
P.S. Fair disclaimer: I have positions in $BITI, $TNA, and $SQQQ to hedge longs. May need to haircut longs much more than thought. TBD :( :( :(
#bitcoin #primal #finance