Comte de Sats Germain on Nostr: Increasing block size could incentivize a reorg because fees per block fall, so some ...

Increasing block size could incentivize a reorg because fees per block fall, so some number of miners become unprofitable - the most expensive/least efficient miners. They're still hitting nonces at the same rate as before, butwity the payout lower, it could make sense to start turning off the miners with the highest cost per hash. At some point, you could have a lot of hardware sitting around, and at some point its enough to attempt a reorg. I'm not super familiar with this stuff, so I'm just conceptualizing. Idk for sure but I think the bigger the reorg (further back in time), the more hash is required. So if hash is coming offline because fees are low, then there's a curve you could plot where hash profitability is negatively correlated with the depth of a potential reorg. So expanding the block size has to be done very carefully, at a slower pace than new hashrate coming online.

The opposite would be no problem - reducing block size increases profits per hash, so previously unprofitable miners could be profitable again. Of course there are limits, like if the economy is dependent on opening and closing lightning channels and block size constricts the possible throughput regardless of fees.