Bobby on Nostr: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗿’𝘀 ...

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗿’𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗰𝘆

“Picture the scene. You’re a homicide detective on one of those ‘CSI-type’ shows. You’ve found a DNA sample left at the crime scene, but no other evidence to try and find your suspect. You decide to run the DNA sample through a database of known criminals, and you get a match. Surely you’ve found your killer?

According to Bayes’ Theorem, probably not.”
https://tomrocksmaths.com/2021/09/08/the-prosecutors-fallacy/