BitcoinAlchemist on Nostr: We looked into DLCs for prediction markets, and it's a big challenge to incorporate ...
We looked into DLCs for prediction markets, and it's a big challenge to incorporate LMSR. We'd need to code up a transfer or swap mechanism to enable DLCs to trade at a market price before the event settles.
Enabling the prediction market to essentially operate as an ecash mint, where the tokens are treated as shares in an event, would enable real-time trading (with LMSR) and facilitate accurate forecasting. Plus shares as tokens means users could download shares (or get them sent to an ecash wallet) without authenticating, thereby preserving privacy.
The main attraction of ecash over DLCs is the securely private/anonymous user experience and the ease of development.
Enabling the prediction market to essentially operate as an ecash mint, where the tokens are treated as shares in an event, would enable real-time trading (with LMSR) and facilitate accurate forecasting. Plus shares as tokens means users could download shares (or get them sent to an ecash wallet) without authenticating, thereby preserving privacy.
The main attraction of ecash over DLCs is the securely private/anonymous user experience and the ease of development.