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Brown Bananas, Crowded Ports, Empty Shelves: What To Expect If Major Port Strike Erupts On Tuesday
Brown Bananas, Crowded Ports, Empty Shelves: What To Expect If Major Port Strike Erupts On Tuesday
Authored by https://x.com/Supernetworks
:
Whether you're buying a can of sardines or a screwdriver, getting products to consumers requires that supply chains function well.
The availability of labor is essential in each link of the supply chain. That includes the workers who make sure that your tinned fish and handy tools smoothly journey from their point of origin to where they'll wind up, whether it's a supermarket, hardware store or your front door.
Amazingly, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/02/worlds-busiest-ocean-shipping-routes-trade
. For U.S. ports, there were many bouts of congestion. Demand for goods that were either more or less popular than they would normally be became volatile. Shortages of truckers and other freight service providers wreaked havoc on land-based and maritime transportation networks.
Consumers became exasperated when they https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-americans-are-still-seeing-empty-shelves-and-long-waits-with-christmas-just-around-the-corner-168635
for items that were suddenly scarce, such as hand sanitizer, computer equipment and bleach.
I'm a https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=ecFsBp0AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate
, I'm concerned about the turmoil that could be around the corner for cargo arriving on ships.
Concerns over pay and technology
The International Longshoremen's Association's six-year contract with the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports will expire on Sept. 30, 2024, at midnight unless the two sides reach an agreement before that deadline. Without a breakthrough, the https://apnews.com/article/labor-ports-strike-east-gulf-10a92943306c7352a03753f41da15b40
that would paralyze ports from Maine to Texas.
Should they walk off the job, it would be the https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/ports-strike-union-warns-walmart-no-trade-import-options.html
.
Labor and management disagree over how much to raise wages, and the union also wants to see limits on https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/02/business/economy/port-workers-robots-automation-strike.html
and is concerned that jobs may be lost because of automation.
Dockworkers on the West Coast, who are not on strike, are paid much higher regular wages than their East Coast and Gulf Coast counterparts who are preparing for a strike. The West Coast workers earn at least an estimated US$116,000 per year, for a 40-hour work week, versus the roughly https://maritime-executive.com/article/usmx-file-unfair-labor-practice-charge-against-ila-ahead-of-us-port-strike
take home, not counting overtime pay.
Management is represented in the talks by the U.S. Maritime Association, which includes the https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/shippers-scramble-workarounds-ahead-threatened-us-port-strike-2024-09-25/
.
White House officials are calling for dock workers and port operators to settle their differences as a strike looms.https://twitter.com/MrSethHarris?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1839752053842645085?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
What to expect if there's a strike
As many as 36 ports would have to stop operating if a strike happens, blocking almost https://www.cbsnews.com/news/port-strike-2024-east-coast-workers
.
If the strike lasts just a day, then it would not be noticeable to a typical consumer. However, businesses of all kinds would no doubt feel the pinch. J.P. Morgan estimates that a strike could https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bananas-cars-clothes-us-port-labor-dispute-threatens-range-products-2024-09-25/
.
Even if only a one-day strike happens, it could take about five days to https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/09/27/port-workers-strike-supply-chain-impact-higher-prices/75384739007/
.
If a strike lasts a week, the results would quickly become apparent to most consumers.
Some shipping companies have already https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/shippers-scramble-workarounds-ahead-threatened-us-port-strike-2024-09-25/
to the West Coast. Even if there's no strike at all, costs will rise and the warehouses could run out of room.
The effects on everything from https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/26/business/port-workers-ila-strike/index.html
.
If the strike were to last a month or more, supplies needed by factories could be in short supply. Numerous consumer products would not be delivered. Workers would be laid off. U.S. exports, including agricultural ones, might get stuck rather than shipped to their destinations. Inflation might increase again. And there would be a new bout of heightened economic anxiety and uncertainty – along with https://abcnews.go.com/Business/looming-port-strike-fuel-inflation-cause-layoffs-experts/story?id=114070962
.
All the while, West Coast ports would face unusually high demand for their services, wreaking havoc on shipping there too.
Yes, we'd have no bananas
My research group's latest work on supply chain disruptions and the effects of various transportation disruptions, including delays, quantifies the impact on the quality of fresh produce. We did a https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4917622
.
This isn't a niche problem.
Bananas are the most-consumed https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58322
.
Many of the bananas sold in the U.S. are grown in https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4917622
.
Although bananas are relatively easy to ship, they require appropriate temperatures and humidity. Even under the best conditions, their quality deteriorates. Long delays will mean shippers will be trying to foist mushy brown bananas on consumers who might reject them.
Alternatively, banana growers may opt to find other markets. It's reasonable to expect to find fewer bananas and much higher prices – possibly of a lower quality. Flying bananas to the U.S. would be too expensive to sustain.
Fresh meat and other refrigerated foods https://www.cbsnews.com/news/east-coast-port-strike-what-to-know/
, and fresh berries, along with other fruits and vegetables, could perish before reaching their destinations.
If there's a port strike, tons of fresh produce, including bananas, that would arrive after Oct. 1 would https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-grocery-stores-could-without-popular-fruit-within-weeks-45000-dockworkers-threaten-strike
rate in the U.S.
1947 Taft-Hartley Act
https://insidetrade.com/daily-news/industry-groups-biden-work-parties-avert-port-strike
the Biden administration to intervene at the last minute to avoid a strike.
The government can invoke the 1947 https://www.nlrb.gov/about-nlrb/who-we-are/our-history/1947-taft-hartley-substantive-provisions
, which allows the president to ask a court to order an 80-day cooling-off period when public health or safety is at risk.
However, https://www.npr.org/2024/09/27/nx-s1-5124956/dockworkers-strike-shipping-east-gulf-coast-ports
.
So if you're planning to bake banana bread or were thinking you might get an early start on your holiday shopping, I'd advise you to make those shopping trips as soon as possible – just in case.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 - 20:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brown-bananas-crowded-ports-empty-shelves-what-expect-if-major-port-strike-erupts-tuesday
Brown Bananas, Crowded Ports, Empty Shelves: What To Expect If Major Port Strike Erupts On Tuesday
Authored by https://x.com/Supernetworks
:
Whether you're buying a can of sardines or a screwdriver, getting products to consumers requires that supply chains function well.
The availability of labor is essential in each link of the supply chain. That includes the workers who make sure that your tinned fish and handy tools smoothly journey from their point of origin to where they'll wind up, whether it's a supermarket, hardware store or your front door.
Amazingly, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/02/worlds-busiest-ocean-shipping-routes-trade
. For U.S. ports, there were many bouts of congestion. Demand for goods that were either more or less popular than they would normally be became volatile. Shortages of truckers and other freight service providers wreaked havoc on land-based and maritime transportation networks.
Consumers became exasperated when they https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-americans-are-still-seeing-empty-shelves-and-long-waits-with-christmas-just-around-the-corner-168635
for items that were suddenly scarce, such as hand sanitizer, computer equipment and bleach.
I'm a https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=ecFsBp0AAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate
, I'm concerned about the turmoil that could be around the corner for cargo arriving on ships.
Concerns over pay and technology
The International Longshoremen's Association's six-year contract with the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports will expire on Sept. 30, 2024, at midnight unless the two sides reach an agreement before that deadline. Without a breakthrough, the https://apnews.com/article/labor-ports-strike-east-gulf-10a92943306c7352a03753f41da15b40
that would paralyze ports from Maine to Texas.
Should they walk off the job, it would be the https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/ports-strike-union-warns-walmart-no-trade-import-options.html
.
Labor and management disagree over how much to raise wages, and the union also wants to see limits on https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/02/business/economy/port-workers-robots-automation-strike.html
and is concerned that jobs may be lost because of automation.
Dockworkers on the West Coast, who are not on strike, are paid much higher regular wages than their East Coast and Gulf Coast counterparts who are preparing for a strike. The West Coast workers earn at least an estimated US$116,000 per year, for a 40-hour work week, versus the roughly https://maritime-executive.com/article/usmx-file-unfair-labor-practice-charge-against-ila-ahead-of-us-port-strike
take home, not counting overtime pay.
Management is represented in the talks by the U.S. Maritime Association, which includes the https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/shippers-scramble-workarounds-ahead-threatened-us-port-strike-2024-09-25/
.
White House officials are calling for dock workers and port operators to settle their differences as a strike looms.https://twitter.com/MrSethHarris?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1839752053842645085?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
What to expect if there's a strike
As many as 36 ports would have to stop operating if a strike happens, blocking almost https://www.cbsnews.com/news/port-strike-2024-east-coast-workers
.
If the strike lasts just a day, then it would not be noticeable to a typical consumer. However, businesses of all kinds would no doubt feel the pinch. J.P. Morgan estimates that a strike could https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bananas-cars-clothes-us-port-labor-dispute-threatens-range-products-2024-09-25/
.
Even if only a one-day strike happens, it could take about five days to https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/09/27/port-workers-strike-supply-chain-impact-higher-prices/75384739007/
.
If a strike lasts a week, the results would quickly become apparent to most consumers.
Some shipping companies have already https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/shippers-scramble-workarounds-ahead-threatened-us-port-strike-2024-09-25/
to the West Coast. Even if there's no strike at all, costs will rise and the warehouses could run out of room.
The effects on everything from https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/26/business/port-workers-ila-strike/index.html
.
If the strike were to last a month or more, supplies needed by factories could be in short supply. Numerous consumer products would not be delivered. Workers would be laid off. U.S. exports, including agricultural ones, might get stuck rather than shipped to their destinations. Inflation might increase again. And there would be a new bout of heightened economic anxiety and uncertainty – along with https://abcnews.go.com/Business/looming-port-strike-fuel-inflation-cause-layoffs-experts/story?id=114070962
.
All the while, West Coast ports would face unusually high demand for their services, wreaking havoc on shipping there too.
Yes, we'd have no bananas
My research group's latest work on supply chain disruptions and the effects of various transportation disruptions, including delays, quantifies the impact on the quality of fresh produce. We did a https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4917622
.
This isn't a niche problem.
Bananas are the most-consumed https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58322
.
Many of the bananas sold in the U.S. are grown in https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4917622
.
Although bananas are relatively easy to ship, they require appropriate temperatures and humidity. Even under the best conditions, their quality deteriorates. Long delays will mean shippers will be trying to foist mushy brown bananas on consumers who might reject them.
Alternatively, banana growers may opt to find other markets. It's reasonable to expect to find fewer bananas and much higher prices – possibly of a lower quality. Flying bananas to the U.S. would be too expensive to sustain.
Fresh meat and other refrigerated foods https://www.cbsnews.com/news/east-coast-port-strike-what-to-know/
, and fresh berries, along with other fruits and vegetables, could perish before reaching their destinations.
If there's a port strike, tons of fresh produce, including bananas, that would arrive after Oct. 1 would https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-grocery-stores-could-without-popular-fruit-within-weeks-45000-dockworkers-threaten-strike
rate in the U.S.
1947 Taft-Hartley Act
https://insidetrade.com/daily-news/industry-groups-biden-work-parties-avert-port-strike
the Biden administration to intervene at the last minute to avoid a strike.
The government can invoke the 1947 https://www.nlrb.gov/about-nlrb/who-we-are/our-history/1947-taft-hartley-substantive-provisions
, which allows the president to ask a court to order an 80-day cooling-off period when public health or safety is at risk.
However, https://www.npr.org/2024/09/27/nx-s1-5124956/dockworkers-strike-shipping-east-gulf-coast-ports
.
So if you're planning to bake banana bread or were thinking you might get an early start on your holiday shopping, I'd advise you to make those shopping trips as soon as possible – just in case.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 - 20:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brown-bananas-crowded-ports-empty-shelves-what-expect-if-major-port-strike-erupts-tuesday