Leo Wandersleb on Nostr: These elections alone are approaching a billion USD already. The theory of prediction ...

These elections alone are approaching a billion USD already. The theory of prediction markets is that people with inside knowledge would bet according to that and thus people would learn real world outcomes before the fact no matter how irrational the bet might look and no matter whether the entity who influences the outcome does the betting or just somebody who is in on the information.

So let's say some entity wants to prevent Kamala as the next president. It doesn't matter if that is via assassination, election fraud, kidnapping, blackmail or what not, anybody who was in on the conspiracy could make a bet accordingly. This in turn would signal to Kamala's team that something was off but not what exactly. Now somebody able to foil the conspiracy could also get a betting position in favor of Kamala. Etc.

I love prediction markets. I only don't love that this Polymarket is not built on Bitcoin 🥲