dot on Nostr: This vision is very intuitive to me. As a human, my intellect (quite under-developed ...
This vision is very intuitive to me. As a human, my intellect (quite under-developed compared to the one described above) allows me to capture the mechanics between some causes and effects. If, for example, I press a light switch, I can guess pretty accurately what its future position will be. In other cases, the causes are unobservable, or too multiple for me, making any prediction on the effect unsurmontable; typically, I cannot predict the outcome of throwing a die.
This makes the definition of probability theory very empowering, and motivated me to study it in my Masters degree. With probabilies, we can seemingly overcome our causal blindness and learn directly about the world from the observed effects. In the case of the previous example, the assumption of a balanced die instruct us that the outcomes of a throw are equiprobable. This in turns allows us to infer properties about the effects that we might observe. We know for example that obtaining 5 times the same outcome in a row is very unlikely.
This hope for understanding the occurence of effects, despite our complete knowledge of causes is nevertheless hindered by chaotic dynamical systems.
This makes the definition of probability theory very empowering, and motivated me to study it in my Masters degree. With probabilies, we can seemingly overcome our causal blindness and learn directly about the world from the observed effects. In the case of the previous example, the assumption of a balanced die instruct us that the outcomes of a throw are equiprobable. This in turns allows us to infer properties about the effects that we might observe. We know for example that obtaining 5 times the same outcome in a row is very unlikely.
This hope for understanding the occurence of effects, despite our complete knowledge of causes is nevertheless hindered by chaotic dynamical systems.