jimbocoin on Nostr: Agreed that there is a lot of hype around quantum. Hard to predict if/how/when ...
Agreed that there is a lot of hype around quantum. Hard to predict if/how/when practical applications will be developed.
The history of cryptographic systems shows that they tend to fall over long enough time scales. For this reason, my baseline expectation (Baysian prior) is that weaknesses in ECDSA will eventually be found and exploited. Whether by conventional computing or quantum.
As long as these weaknesses are discovered and exploited slowly, #Bitcoin can adapt. We can soft-fork in new signature schemes. The bulk of existing UTXOs can be migrated, even if a few get cracked in the process.
A zero-day fast crack of ECDSA would break “your keys, your coins”. This is the only existential threat to Bitcoin that I know of. Fortunately, it seems incredibly unlikely.
The history of cryptographic systems shows that they tend to fall over long enough time scales. For this reason, my baseline expectation (Baysian prior) is that weaknesses in ECDSA will eventually be found and exploited. Whether by conventional computing or quantum.
As long as these weaknesses are discovered and exploited slowly, #Bitcoin can adapt. We can soft-fork in new signature schemes. The bulk of existing UTXOs can be migrated, even if a few get cracked in the process.
A zero-day fast crack of ECDSA would break “your keys, your coins”. This is the only existential threat to Bitcoin that I know of. Fortunately, it seems incredibly unlikely.