BaleNorge on Nostr: Key principles for using Bayesian thinking: 1. **Start with base rates**: Always ...
Key principles for using Bayesian thinking:
1. **Start with base rates**: Always consider how common something is in general
2. **Weigh evidence quality**: Strong evidence should change beliefs more than weak evidence
3. **Update gradually**: Change beliefs in steps as new information comes in
4. **Avoid extremes**: Be cautious about 0% or 100% certainty
5. **Consider alternative explanations**: Look for other possibilities.
jack (npub1sg6…f63m) Published at
2025-01-31 12:38:48Event JSON
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