drgo on Nostr: Only stupid people dislike his model. Plan B always says “all models are wrong, but ...
Only stupid people dislike his model.
Plan B always says “all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
S2F is wildly optimistic in the long run but it matches history and power law model fairly well right now, but in 2 halvings it will become clear who was right, power law or s2f…
Do I think s2f is wrong? Not yet. But soon it will be. Has it been useful? Heck yeah. But if you’re tying to plan 10+ years in to the future, use power law model.
Plan B always says “all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
S2F is wildly optimistic in the long run but it matches history and power law model fairly well right now, but in 2 halvings it will become clear who was right, power law or s2f…
Do I think s2f is wrong? Not yet. But soon it will be. Has it been useful? Heck yeah. But if you’re tying to plan 10+ years in to the future, use power law model.