Billy Tetrud [ARCHIVE] on Nostr: 📅 Original date posted:2023-01-02 🗒️ Summary of this message: Delaying ...
đź“… Original date posted:2023-01-02
🗒️ Summary of this message: Delaying halvings may not solve the problem of a catastrophic miner exodus. Hoarding Bitcoin is not necessarily bad, and Gresham's law does not apply.
đź“ť Original message:> is surely better than not delaying it.
I might agree, but I don't think it really solves the problem well enough
to be worth it. Any solution that would solve the problem better would make
delaying halvings unnecessary.
> there is non-zero risk that people will hoard it more and more, according
to old Gresham's law
Gresham's law doesn't apply here. Gresham's law is about the interaction
between two currencies with a fixed, usually government-enforced exchange
rate. You seem to be saying that Bitcoin will be hoarded because Bitcoin
inflation reduces every halving. But even with 0 inflation, it certainly
won't cause all Bitcoin to be hoarded. Also, "hoarding" is also known as
"saving", and there's nothing wrong with saving. The spectre of deflation
comes from a misunderstanding of deflation and why it happens during bad
economic times. It is an effect, not a cause.
On Sun, Jan 1, 2023, 15:23 <jk_14 at op.pl> wrote:
>
> Yes, the idea is:
> if mining activity is growing - let's execute consecutive halvings
> but if miner exodus has happened - let's delay next halving until mining
> activity is recovered to previous levels
>
> If it gets to the point where a sudden drop in mining difficulty happens -
> delaying the next halving may be not sufficient to correct, but is surely
> better than not delaying it.
>
> While Bitcoin is better and better money with every halving in comparision
> to other types of money - there is non-zero risk that people will hoard it
> more and more, according to old Gresham's law ("HODL"). And this way
> decreasing liquidity / transactions volume. The positive feedback loop - is
> my real concern here.
>
> Regarding the relationship between difficulty and security - I fully agree.
> But ASIC technology is already matured. And also any technology
> breakthrough is a short event within 4 years period.
> So growth of difficulty could be gained by technology breakthrough, but
> any sudden drop of difficulty would be always an issue, while there is no
> such thing as: ASIC technology regression.
>
> Obviously, not complicated solution would be better than complicated one.
>
>
> W dniu 2022-12-30 19:21:10 uĹĽytkownik Billy Tetrud <billy.tetrud at gmail.com>
> napisał:
>
> If the idea is to ensure that a catastrophic miner exodus doesn't happen,
> the "difference" you're calculating should only care about downward
> differences. Upward differences indicate more mining activity and so
> shouldn't cause a halving skip.
>
> But I don't think any scheme like this that only acts on the basis of
> difficulty will be sufficient. If it gets to the point where a sudden drop
> in mining difficulty happens, it is very likely that simply delaying the
> next halving or even ending halving all together will not be sufficient to
> correct for whatever is causing hashrate to tank. There is also the danger
> of simple difficulty stagnation, which this mechanism wouldn't detect.
>
> The relationship between difficulty and security becomes less and less
> predictable the longer you want to look ahead. There's no long term
> relation between difficulty and any reasonable security target. A security
> target might be something like "no colluding group with less than $1
> trillion dollars at their disposal could successfully 51% attack the
> network (with a probability of blah blah)". There is no way to today
> program in any code that detects based on difficult alone when that
> criteria is violated. You would have to program in assumptions about the
> cost of hashrate projected into the future.
>
> I can't think of any robust automatic way to do this. I think to a certain
> degree, it will have to be a change that happens in a fork of some kind
> (soft or hard) periodically (every 10 years? 30 years?). The basic
> relations needed is really the cost in Bitcoin of the security target (ie
> the minimum number of Bitcoin it should take to 51% attack the system) and
> the cost in Bitcoin of acquiring a unit of hashrate. This could be simply
> input into the code, or could use some complicated oracle system. But with
> that relation, the system could be programmed to calculate the difficulty
> necessary to keep the system secure.
>
> Once that is in place, the system could automatically adjust the subsidy
> up or down to attract more or less miners, or it could adjust the block
> size up or down to change the fee market such that more or less total fees
> are collected each block to attract more or less miners.
>
> On Tue, Dec 27, 2022, 09:41 Jaroslaw via bitcoin-dev <
> bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>
>>
>> It seems like the more elegant solution could be by using a chainwork
>> parameter instead.
>> i.e. comparison just before halving - if the last 210,000 block interval
>> has a higher chainwork difference between the begining and the end of
>> interval
>> than any other such inter-halving interval before.
>>
>> LIttle digression yet:
>> A system in which all users participate in ensuring its security looks
>> better than one in which only some (i.e. active) of them participate (and
>> passive stakeholders are de facto free riders)
>> In my opinion this concept above is only the complement of currently
>> missing mechanism: achieving equilibrium regarding costs of security
>> between two parties with opposing interests.
>> It's easy to understand and - most important - it has no hardcoded value
>> of tail emission - what is the clear proof it is based on a free market.
>> And last but not least, if someone is 100% sure that income from
>> transactions will takeover security support from block subsidy - accepting
>> such proposal is like putting the money where the mouth is: this safety
>> measure will never be triggered, then (no risk of fork)
>>
>>
>> Best Regards
>> Jaroslaw
>>
>>
>>
>> W dniu 2022-12-23 20:29:20 uĹĽytkownik Jaroslaw via bitcoin-dev <
>> bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org> napisał:
>> >
>> Necessary or not - it doesn't hurt to plan the robust model, just in
>> case. The proposal is:
>>
>> Let every 210,000 the code calculate the average difficulty of 100 last
>> retargets (100 fit well in 210,000 / 2016 = 104.166)
>> and compare with the maximum of all such values calculated before, every
>> 210,000 blocks:
>>
>>
>> if average_diff_of_last_100_retargets >
>> maximum_of_all_previous_average_diffs
>> do halving
>> else
>> do nothing
>>
>>
>> This way:
>>
>> 1. system cannot be played
>> 2. only in case of destructive halving: system waits for the recovery of
>> network security
>>
>>
>> Best Regards
>> Jaroslaw
>> _______________________________________________
>> bitcoin-dev mailing list
>> bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org
>> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> bitcoin-dev mailing list
>> bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org
>> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>>
>
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🗒️ Summary of this message: Delaying halvings may not solve the problem of a catastrophic miner exodus. Hoarding Bitcoin is not necessarily bad, and Gresham's law does not apply.
đź“ť Original message:> is surely better than not delaying it.
I might agree, but I don't think it really solves the problem well enough
to be worth it. Any solution that would solve the problem better would make
delaying halvings unnecessary.
> there is non-zero risk that people will hoard it more and more, according
to old Gresham's law
Gresham's law doesn't apply here. Gresham's law is about the interaction
between two currencies with a fixed, usually government-enforced exchange
rate. You seem to be saying that Bitcoin will be hoarded because Bitcoin
inflation reduces every halving. But even with 0 inflation, it certainly
won't cause all Bitcoin to be hoarded. Also, "hoarding" is also known as
"saving", and there's nothing wrong with saving. The spectre of deflation
comes from a misunderstanding of deflation and why it happens during bad
economic times. It is an effect, not a cause.
On Sun, Jan 1, 2023, 15:23 <jk_14 at op.pl> wrote:
>
> Yes, the idea is:
> if mining activity is growing - let's execute consecutive halvings
> but if miner exodus has happened - let's delay next halving until mining
> activity is recovered to previous levels
>
> If it gets to the point where a sudden drop in mining difficulty happens -
> delaying the next halving may be not sufficient to correct, but is surely
> better than not delaying it.
>
> While Bitcoin is better and better money with every halving in comparision
> to other types of money - there is non-zero risk that people will hoard it
> more and more, according to old Gresham's law ("HODL"). And this way
> decreasing liquidity / transactions volume. The positive feedback loop - is
> my real concern here.
>
> Regarding the relationship between difficulty and security - I fully agree.
> But ASIC technology is already matured. And also any technology
> breakthrough is a short event within 4 years period.
> So growth of difficulty could be gained by technology breakthrough, but
> any sudden drop of difficulty would be always an issue, while there is no
> such thing as: ASIC technology regression.
>
> Obviously, not complicated solution would be better than complicated one.
>
>
> W dniu 2022-12-30 19:21:10 uĹĽytkownik Billy Tetrud <billy.tetrud at gmail.com>
> napisał:
>
> If the idea is to ensure that a catastrophic miner exodus doesn't happen,
> the "difference" you're calculating should only care about downward
> differences. Upward differences indicate more mining activity and so
> shouldn't cause a halving skip.
>
> But I don't think any scheme like this that only acts on the basis of
> difficulty will be sufficient. If it gets to the point where a sudden drop
> in mining difficulty happens, it is very likely that simply delaying the
> next halving or even ending halving all together will not be sufficient to
> correct for whatever is causing hashrate to tank. There is also the danger
> of simple difficulty stagnation, which this mechanism wouldn't detect.
>
> The relationship between difficulty and security becomes less and less
> predictable the longer you want to look ahead. There's no long term
> relation between difficulty and any reasonable security target. A security
> target might be something like "no colluding group with less than $1
> trillion dollars at their disposal could successfully 51% attack the
> network (with a probability of blah blah)". There is no way to today
> program in any code that detects based on difficult alone when that
> criteria is violated. You would have to program in assumptions about the
> cost of hashrate projected into the future.
>
> I can't think of any robust automatic way to do this. I think to a certain
> degree, it will have to be a change that happens in a fork of some kind
> (soft or hard) periodically (every 10 years? 30 years?). The basic
> relations needed is really the cost in Bitcoin of the security target (ie
> the minimum number of Bitcoin it should take to 51% attack the system) and
> the cost in Bitcoin of acquiring a unit of hashrate. This could be simply
> input into the code, or could use some complicated oracle system. But with
> that relation, the system could be programmed to calculate the difficulty
> necessary to keep the system secure.
>
> Once that is in place, the system could automatically adjust the subsidy
> up or down to attract more or less miners, or it could adjust the block
> size up or down to change the fee market such that more or less total fees
> are collected each block to attract more or less miners.
>
> On Tue, Dec 27, 2022, 09:41 Jaroslaw via bitcoin-dev <
> bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>
>>
>> It seems like the more elegant solution could be by using a chainwork
>> parameter instead.
>> i.e. comparison just before halving - if the last 210,000 block interval
>> has a higher chainwork difference between the begining and the end of
>> interval
>> than any other such inter-halving interval before.
>>
>> LIttle digression yet:
>> A system in which all users participate in ensuring its security looks
>> better than one in which only some (i.e. active) of them participate (and
>> passive stakeholders are de facto free riders)
>> In my opinion this concept above is only the complement of currently
>> missing mechanism: achieving equilibrium regarding costs of security
>> between two parties with opposing interests.
>> It's easy to understand and - most important - it has no hardcoded value
>> of tail emission - what is the clear proof it is based on a free market.
>> And last but not least, if someone is 100% sure that income from
>> transactions will takeover security support from block subsidy - accepting
>> such proposal is like putting the money where the mouth is: this safety
>> measure will never be triggered, then (no risk of fork)
>>
>>
>> Best Regards
>> Jaroslaw
>>
>>
>>
>> W dniu 2022-12-23 20:29:20 uĹĽytkownik Jaroslaw via bitcoin-dev <
>> bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org> napisał:
>> >
>> Necessary or not - it doesn't hurt to plan the robust model, just in
>> case. The proposal is:
>>
>> Let every 210,000 the code calculate the average difficulty of 100 last
>> retargets (100 fit well in 210,000 / 2016 = 104.166)
>> and compare with the maximum of all such values calculated before, every
>> 210,000 blocks:
>>
>>
>> if average_diff_of_last_100_retargets >
>> maximum_of_all_previous_average_diffs
>> do halving
>> else
>> do nothing
>>
>>
>> This way:
>>
>> 1. system cannot be played
>> 2. only in case of destructive halving: system waits for the recovery of
>> network security
>>
>>
>> Best Regards
>> Jaroslaw
>> _______________________________________________
>> bitcoin-dev mailing list
>> bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org
>> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> bitcoin-dev mailing list
>> bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org
>> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>>
>
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