What is Nostr?
VarMur
npub1h6a…2mwx
2024-04-22 03:09:41

VarMur on Nostr: I used to think that we would see diminishing returns over successive halving cycles, ...

I used to think that we would see diminishing returns over successive halving cycles, but can no longer hold that view. What we will see is diminishing volatility.

If adoption follows the s-curve, which we have strong reason to believe it will, we are - in terms of total world wealth - barely at the beginning. Easily below 1%. (1.3T of 900T)

Similar to all the shitcoins which clearly show exponential decay when priced in #bitcoin, the price of bitcoin should show decay in *volatility* while finding the underlying s-curve.

At sub 1%, the s-curve has barely started its exponential trajectory.
Diminishing returns will occur only after the halfway mark of adoption.

As #JeffBooth so clearly explains, the 900T of world wealth will easily be twice that in a while, due to the unstoppable debasement of all fiat. It won’t stop there.

Bitcoin will gain as a function of both depreciating fiat, and increase in demand and adoption along the s-curve.

I have no frame of reference to guess what this will look like, anon. Do you?
Author Public Key
npub1h6a3f3gvzfvudersx94ufyt6yytfjkcck607qt9z3c9mavqw6tvsaw2mwx