kravietz 🦇 on Nostr: Another great post by Polish analyst Daniel Szeligowski, about “Russian security ...
Another great post by Polish analyst Daniel Szeligowski, about “Russian security concerns” related to #NATO and #Ukraine. All following text is Daniel’s, written originally in English, with no quote block for readability.
In early 2014, Ukraine was a neutral country, with a pro-Russian president, and with 70% of Ukraine’s population against NATO membership. Yet Russia violated Ukraine’s neutrality and annexed Crimea, then launched a covert invasion of Ukraine in the east.
Petro Poroshenko won the presidential election in 2014 having promised a settlement with Russia, keeping a special status of the Russian language in Ukraine. He was initially sceptical regarding NATO accession, underlined Ukraine must rely on its own strength to provide security.
Zelensky also won the presidential election promising to compromise with Russia - to stop shooting, sit down with Putin and talk. He was even more sceptical regarding NATO accession. Asked about NATO, he once famously said he never pays anyone a visit if he has not been invited.
Zelensky was ready to drop Ukraine’s NATO membership bid in an exchange for the Russian troops withdrawing from Ukraine, and the talks were held already before 2022. And yet Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In the first weeks of the invasion, Zelensky was yet again ready to drop Ukraine’s NATO bid. But he wanted to obtain international security guarantees. So Putin put forward demands that Russia must be consulted before any aid would be given to Ukraine in the event of aggression.
Both Poroshenko and Zelensky were initially sceptical regarding Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Both wanted to get a deal with Putin. And Putin himself pushed both of them to seek NATO membership out of no other viable alternatives.
Putin has shown no willingness to compromise with Ukraine. His war aims remain maximalist - subjugating Ukraine and changing its regime. He seeks Ukraine’s partition, and will turn what is left of Ukraine into a Russian protectorate. Nothing to do with his “feelings” about NATO.
Regrettably, Russia’s imperial self-conception is that of Russian elites at large, not just Putin. Russian leadership simply cannot reconcile with the existence of a sovereign Ukrainian statehood. So any sustainable Ukrainian-Russian compromise is currently not within reach.
In early 2014, Ukraine was a neutral country, with a pro-Russian president, and with 70% of Ukraine’s population against NATO membership. Yet Russia violated Ukraine’s neutrality and annexed Crimea, then launched a covert invasion of Ukraine in the east.
Petro Poroshenko won the presidential election in 2014 having promised a settlement with Russia, keeping a special status of the Russian language in Ukraine. He was initially sceptical regarding NATO accession, underlined Ukraine must rely on its own strength to provide security.
Zelensky also won the presidential election promising to compromise with Russia - to stop shooting, sit down with Putin and talk. He was even more sceptical regarding NATO accession. Asked about NATO, he once famously said he never pays anyone a visit if he has not been invited.
Zelensky was ready to drop Ukraine’s NATO membership bid in an exchange for the Russian troops withdrawing from Ukraine, and the talks were held already before 2022. And yet Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In the first weeks of the invasion, Zelensky was yet again ready to drop Ukraine’s NATO bid. But he wanted to obtain international security guarantees. So Putin put forward demands that Russia must be consulted before any aid would be given to Ukraine in the event of aggression.
Both Poroshenko and Zelensky were initially sceptical regarding Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Both wanted to get a deal with Putin. And Putin himself pushed both of them to seek NATO membership out of no other viable alternatives.
Putin has shown no willingness to compromise with Ukraine. His war aims remain maximalist - subjugating Ukraine and changing its regime. He seeks Ukraine’s partition, and will turn what is left of Ukraine into a Russian protectorate. Nothing to do with his “feelings” about NATO.
Regrettably, Russia’s imperial self-conception is that of Russian elites at large, not just Putin. Russian leadership simply cannot reconcile with the existence of a sovereign Ukrainian statehood. So any sustainable Ukrainian-Russian compromise is currently not within reach.