kravietz 🦇 on Nostr: As I wrote rather cautiously long before Trump’s inauguration, I don’t see any ...
As I wrote rather cautiously long before Trump’s inauguration, I don’t see any interest that #Russia would have in a ceasefire without recognising the occupied territories and lifting the sanctions - any other option would mean a military defeat for Putin.
At the time, I did not realise that Trump would be Putin’s advocate. Today, Washington is signalling openly that it is not about fancy suits, arguments or raw material contracts. It is about ‘concessions’, obviously in favour of Russia:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-wants-see-just-minerals-deal-restart-aid-intel-ukraine-rcna195508
These ‘concessions’ are the sine qua non of the ‘peace’ that Putin had to offer Trump. What kind of ‘concessions’ are we talking about? Putin has said it many times: he wants Ukraine to voluntarily leave Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In return, Trump promises American investments as a form of ‘compensation’. I have no doubt this is precisely what Zelensky heard from Trump, and I fully understand how pissed off he must have been.
Of course, leaving all these cities to the Russians would be a catastrophic betrayal of all the people who live there by the Ukrainian state, regardless of the moral and legal aspects. The chances of this happening are close to zero.
Both Trump and Putin have backed themselves into a corner because they are narcissistic idiots who treat everything as an object for ‘sdelka’ (Putin) and ‘deal’ (Trump). In the same way, ignoring the fact that it’s Ukrainians who live in Ukraine, Putin started the war in 2014 and 2022.
Ukraine will obviously not abandon these cities and is managing without the USA for the time being. However, there is no doubt that Trump will now do everything he can to bring Ukraine to a point where it has no choice. And Musk and Trump are saying this openly, while Putin is rejecting the truce.
Putin, and Trump following his lead, are repeating the Russian tactics from 2013: ‘If you put enough pressure on them, they will give in.’ The extreme brutality of the Berkut in November 2013 and then in February 2014 were all logical tools of Russian domestic policy. But Ukraine is not Russia!
I don’t know how far Trump wants to and can go in pacifying Ukraine. That he wants to is beyond doubt - Putin made him a deal. I bet that according to the deal, Ukraine must lose the war in a way that both Russians and Ukrainians feel strongly. Probably, the surrender of Donbas alone would be enough, which is what Trump can say about “concessions” on the side of Russia. I declare your house and all belongings mine, then after much haggling I agree to only take your car, and that’s my “concession”!
What will Europe do? I don’t know. I do know that I will do what I have done so far, which is to support all the fundraisers that I can afford and send my boring communications equipment to the lads because I know they need it.
Of course, Europe has a chance to establish itself as a leader here and reshuffle the world order because, as I wrote, Putin’s lack of a spectacular win is his spectacular loss. As is Trump’s loss and living proof that ‘bickering’ between dull narcissists doesn’t work.
At the time, I did not realise that Trump would be Putin’s advocate. Today, Washington is signalling openly that it is not about fancy suits, arguments or raw material contracts. It is about ‘concessions’, obviously in favour of Russia:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-wants-see-just-minerals-deal-restart-aid-intel-ukraine-rcna195508
These ‘concessions’ are the sine qua non of the ‘peace’ that Putin had to offer Trump. What kind of ‘concessions’ are we talking about? Putin has said it many times: he wants Ukraine to voluntarily leave Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In return, Trump promises American investments as a form of ‘compensation’. I have no doubt this is precisely what Zelensky heard from Trump, and I fully understand how pissed off he must have been.
Of course, leaving all these cities to the Russians would be a catastrophic betrayal of all the people who live there by the Ukrainian state, regardless of the moral and legal aspects. The chances of this happening are close to zero.
Both Trump and Putin have backed themselves into a corner because they are narcissistic idiots who treat everything as an object for ‘sdelka’ (Putin) and ‘deal’ (Trump). In the same way, ignoring the fact that it’s Ukrainians who live in Ukraine, Putin started the war in 2014 and 2022.
Ukraine will obviously not abandon these cities and is managing without the USA for the time being. However, there is no doubt that Trump will now do everything he can to bring Ukraine to a point where it has no choice. And Musk and Trump are saying this openly, while Putin is rejecting the truce.
Putin, and Trump following his lead, are repeating the Russian tactics from 2013: ‘If you put enough pressure on them, they will give in.’ The extreme brutality of the Berkut in November 2013 and then in February 2014 were all logical tools of Russian domestic policy. But Ukraine is not Russia!
I don’t know how far Trump wants to and can go in pacifying Ukraine. That he wants to is beyond doubt - Putin made him a deal. I bet that according to the deal, Ukraine must lose the war in a way that both Russians and Ukrainians feel strongly. Probably, the surrender of Donbas alone would be enough, which is what Trump can say about “concessions” on the side of Russia. I declare your house and all belongings mine, then after much haggling I agree to only take your car, and that’s my “concession”!
What will Europe do? I don’t know. I do know that I will do what I have done so far, which is to support all the fundraisers that I can afford and send my boring communications equipment to the lads because I know they need it.
Of course, Europe has a chance to establish itself as a leader here and reshuffle the world order because, as I wrote, Putin’s lack of a spectacular win is his spectacular loss. As is Trump’s loss and living proof that ‘bickering’ between dull narcissists doesn’t work.