Carlos Guerreiro on Nostr: npub15dmll…end6f npub1psdfx…99sr7 I don't think anyone really knows at this point ...
npub15dmlle22zd4ypr05le5mttr6xusfp5yld4nq08qe9yzaa8nvj23qfend6f (npub15dm…nd6f) npub1psdfxfpxz2cwmmnsk60y3nqpn2tqh9n24h4hstvfkwvr6eaek9js499sr7 (npub1psd…9sr7)
I don't think anyone really knows at this point how it will go in the long run.
Models are highly dependent on assumptions.
In particular, we don't know what it will mean to endure a lifetime of infections from birth. It could be bad in ways not fully visible yet.
I guess that's not what insurers are concerned with anyway.
They are concerned with the adult population that survived these last 3 years in whatever shape they are now. How long can they be expected to still live?
Until the pandemic these EoL values at 50 or 60 or whatever had been growing because living conditions had been improving for each successive cohort.
They took a hit immediately with the pandemic.
In some sense someone reaching 50 years old 5 years from now will have benefitted from some improvement over someone who is reaching 50 now. They probably lived with better conditions - on average - than the earlier cohort for a part of their life - until 2020.
Is that enough to compensate for those years after 2020, of which the younger cohort has endured more? Maybe not.
In the long run, if SARS-CoV-2 keeps infecting us at will, it will impact people from birth to grave.
That will take a lifetime to fully observe and meanwhile there will be other factors at play, probably at least one more pandemic. Or with luck some medical breakthrough.
I think it will be possible to extrapolate how it might look like, and compare with a counterfactual world without widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection but it will be tricky and controversial. I fear that over a lifetime the average effect will be measured in years, not months.
I don't think anyone really knows at this point how it will go in the long run.
Models are highly dependent on assumptions.
In particular, we don't know what it will mean to endure a lifetime of infections from birth. It could be bad in ways not fully visible yet.
I guess that's not what insurers are concerned with anyway.
They are concerned with the adult population that survived these last 3 years in whatever shape they are now. How long can they be expected to still live?
Until the pandemic these EoL values at 50 or 60 or whatever had been growing because living conditions had been improving for each successive cohort.
They took a hit immediately with the pandemic.
In some sense someone reaching 50 years old 5 years from now will have benefitted from some improvement over someone who is reaching 50 now. They probably lived with better conditions - on average - than the earlier cohort for a part of their life - until 2020.
Is that enough to compensate for those years after 2020, of which the younger cohort has endured more? Maybe not.
In the long run, if SARS-CoV-2 keeps infecting us at will, it will impact people from birth to grave.
That will take a lifetime to fully observe and meanwhile there will be other factors at play, probably at least one more pandemic. Or with luck some medical breakthrough.
I think it will be possible to extrapolate how it might look like, and compare with a counterfactual world without widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection but it will be tricky and controversial. I fear that over a lifetime the average effect will be measured in years, not months.