vincenzo_goya on Nostr: I've done some basic modelling on MSTR and how a perpetual debt+equity strategy would ...
I've done some basic modelling on MSTR and how a perpetual debt+equity strategy would impact share price and value relative to BTC
It's kind of crazy actually -- BTC/Share and the Share Price to BTC price ratio is accretive all the way out the curve. And there seems to be the reflexive component that performance increases with mNAV and value accrues even with declining mNAV due to the fact that the entire stack gets marked up faster than they can issue new debt or equity.
I'd have to spend a lot more time modelling but there doesn't appear to be a static equilibrium until
a) MSTR owns all the Bitcoin and is a $2 Quadrillion Market Cap
b) MSTR goes to $0
It also validates his current approach -- get as big of a head start as possible and then buy regularly in order to reduce volatility risk.
And since the dollars being generated to add to his stack are often freshly created by some bank credit desk, this is a true speculative attack. If the US government or other institutions wish to act, they probably have about 4-8 years before this playbook has literally cornered the market, in which case the only risk becomes forced liquidation or seizure.
I'm curious what Saylor has up his sleave to guard against seizure risk. He could be unwittingly be building the USG's reserve of 20% of BTC supply.
It's kind of crazy actually -- BTC/Share and the Share Price to BTC price ratio is accretive all the way out the curve. And there seems to be the reflexive component that performance increases with mNAV and value accrues even with declining mNAV due to the fact that the entire stack gets marked up faster than they can issue new debt or equity.
I'd have to spend a lot more time modelling but there doesn't appear to be a static equilibrium until
a) MSTR owns all the Bitcoin and is a $2 Quadrillion Market Cap
b) MSTR goes to $0
It also validates his current approach -- get as big of a head start as possible and then buy regularly in order to reduce volatility risk.
And since the dollars being generated to add to his stack are often freshly created by some bank credit desk, this is a true speculative attack. If the US government or other institutions wish to act, they probably have about 4-8 years before this playbook has literally cornered the market, in which case the only risk becomes forced liquidation or seizure.
I'm curious what Saylor has up his sleave to guard against seizure risk. He could be unwittingly be building the USG's reserve of 20% of BTC supply.