Loukas Christodoulou on Nostr: Luckily I listened to the 538 podcast about internal polls before this Guardian story ...
Luckily I listened to the 538 podcast about internal polls before this Guardian story about the upcoming by-election swanned across my feed.
The Guardian article is based on an internal Labour poll that shows
Labour 29%
Conservatives 29%
Libdem 22%
The 538 analysis is you should always assume an internal poll is biased around 5 points in favour of the party that commissioned it and you should never write a story based on just one leaked poll.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/should-we-trust-polls-campaigns-leak-to-the-press/ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/labour-tories-neck-and-neck-mid-bedfordshire-race-poll-nadine-dorries
The Guardian article is based on an internal Labour poll that shows
Labour 29%
Conservatives 29%
Libdem 22%
The 538 analysis is you should always assume an internal poll is biased around 5 points in favour of the party that commissioned it and you should never write a story based on just one leaked poll.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/should-we-trust-polls-campaigns-leak-to-the-press/ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/labour-tories-neck-and-neck-mid-bedfordshire-race-poll-nadine-dorries