nick on Nostr: Probability fact many struggle to reason with: If someone says there's a 99.999% ...
Probability fact many struggle to reason with:
If someone says there's a 99.999% chance something will happen, and then it doesn't happen - that person may have been exactly right about the probability.
You can't look at a single poll.
You can't look at a single market.
You can't look at a single event.
Forecasting ability must be measured across a collection of events. See Brier scores.
If someone says there's a 99.999% chance something will happen, and then it doesn't happen - that person may have been exactly right about the probability.
You can't look at a single poll.
You can't look at a single market.
You can't look at a single event.
Forecasting ability must be measured across a collection of events. See Brier scores.