zombie on Nostr: I have zero tolerance for weak number crunching based on data from when bitcoin was ...

I have zero tolerance for weak number crunching based on data from when bitcoin was misunderstood by the entire market

quoting note1c6e…jv9r

How high can bitcoin price go?

I have a reasonable answer to that…

First two assumptions:
1) bitcoin will continue price rise for next 10-100x gain like the first 10-1,000,000x price gain
2) current buyers will buy bitcoin until bitcoin price rises enough to bring effective rate of return down to 7-12%

From 1) power law model predicts bitcoin price will be 2^5.7 x $80k in 16 years…that’s about $4M

From 2) 16 years at 7% or 12% (1.07^16-1.12^16) means a total gain of 3-6x

1) / 2) give us a price range of $700,000 - $1,400,000

If you buy below $700,000, prior bitcoin price history would estimate a better than 12% rate of return. If you buy over $1.4M, you’re expected rate of return is less than 7%.