bĂśrje on Nostr: đ´ DEBUNKING BITCOINER MYTHOLOGY đ´ Part 1: The myth of decentralized adoption ...
đ´ DEBUNKING BITCOINER MYTHOLOGY đ´
Part 1: The myth of decentralized adoption
Why do Bitcoiners cling to the idea of a decentralized, bottom-up global adoption? The notion that Bitcoin will spread in the same organic manner as past technological revolutionsâlike the car, the internet, or the smartphoneâis a myth. A perhaps comforting narrative, but a false one.
â Bitcoin is not like other technologies
Comparing Bitcoinâs adoption to previous technological shifts reveals a crucial difference. The car replaced the horse, the internet replaced the mailing system, and the smartphone replaced landlines. These were all existing, largely decentralized, network-based systems operating in a free(ish) market. Their adoption curves followed a natural, emergent process: individuals and businesses recognized their value and gradually integrated them into everyday life. Bottom-up adoption made sense.
Bitcoin, however, does not seek to replace a decentralized or free-market system. It is not up against a scattered network of incumbents competing in a market-driven way. Instead, it is challenging the final bossâthe central banking system, a structure that is, by design, highly centralized and resistant to disruption.
To assume Bitcoinâs adoption will mimic that of past innovations is to indulge in a mirageâa romanticized belief rather than a probable reality. This illusion may stem from classical economic theories, particularly Adam Smithâs notion of the "economically rational human being." But by now, it should be clear: most people are not economically rational actors. Libertariansâheavily overrepresented among early Bitcoin adoptersâmay be an exception, but they are not the norm.
â The reality: Bitcoinâs adoption will be centralized
Bitcoin is already infiltrating existing power structures, spreading like a memetic virus through the minds of policymakers, financial institutions, and central banks. Yet many Bitcoiners fail to grasp the implications of this.
Adoption will not happen through grassroots movements of individuals choosing to âsave in Bitcoinâ or businesses adopting Lightning for payments. A small fraction may opt-in voluntarily, but the overwhelming majority will not. Bitcoinâs real adoption will come from the top downâthrough centralized implementation, not decentralized choice.
âď¸ Hereâs how it will most likely unfold:
1. Central banks will (inevitably) dip their toes inâfirst through careful reserve allocations, then by leveraging Bitcoinâs properties in financial systems (ie printing money in different ways to acquire additional bitcoin).
2. A game-theoretic domino effect will ensue, following an inevitable slippery slope, where some nations manage to acquire more Bitcoin than others, leading to competitive pressures that force further acquisitions. Or as we know it: FOMO. But this time the FOMO is not among retailers, or even among corporations, but among central bankers and nation states. This will play out via a global print war, where central banks leverage fiat money to acquire a maximal amount of bitcoin.
3. Fiat currencies will persist, ironically, but they will become Bitcoin-backed. The transition will be somewhat invinsible to normal people, who will still use traditional payment railsâcash, cards, mobile appsâwithout realizing the underlying monetary standard has shifted.
4. Deflation will swiftly replace inflation as the economic baseline. As Bitcoinâs purchasing power increases, prices of goods and services will gradually decline in real terms. Again â without people even realizing the true reason behind â bitcoin.
The end result? A hyperbitcoinized world where most people are unwitting, indirect, Bitcoin users.
𤥠The Irony: Central banks survive, private banks collapse
Many Bitcoiners assume that hyperbitcoinization will destroy central banks. But the reality is central banks will likely be the biggest winners among legacy institutions. Hereâs why:
Central banks do not operate as profit-seeking businesses; they control the monetary base itself. Unlike private banks, they do not depend on debt issuance for survival.
When Bitcoin enters the monetary system, it will collapse the traditional debt-based financial model that commercial banks rely on. Credit expansion, fractional reserve banking, and complex derivatives will become obsolete.
Private banks, investment firms, and debt-reliant financial institutions will be left "holding the bag"âholding the worthless remains of a collapsing financial system while central banks transition to Bitcoin reserves.
đ Bitcoin Becomes the "Central Bank of Central Banks"
In the new system, Bitcoin will act as the ultimate reserve asset, similar to how gold once functioned.
Central banks will continue to compete to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible, securing their relevance and survival.
As fiat currencies become Bitcoin-backed, people will continue transacting with familiar digital payment railsâbut the fundamental monetary base will have shifted.
The system will transform from an inflationary model benefiting financial elites to a deflationary model benefiting the general public.
This means Bitcoin wonât destroy central banksâit will force them to evolve into Bitcoin reserve custodians, while commercial banks and rent-seeking financial institutions are wiped out.
đ´ Part 2: The myth of user friendliness â when bitcoin becomes invisible đ´
Long-term, once the dynamic above have unfolded, the financial ecosystem development will be co-evolving with the world of robotics and AI. This will produce a situation where monetary transactions will be outsourced to AI and automationâjust as historical elites never needed to physically handle money, delegating financial tasks to their butlers, servants or accountants.
Now all people will have butlers, servants and accountants, but they will be different types of physical and digital helpers. When robotsânot humansâstart managing daily transactions, the usability concerns that often plague Bitcoin adoption narratives become entirely irrelevant. AI and machines donât need a user-friendly UI. They simply execute transactions in the most optimal way, in accordance with the needs of their owners (humans) likely via peer-to-peer (P2P) settlement on a Bitcoin-based Layer 2 solution or elsewhere in the bitcoin ecosystem.
đŞ This (part 2) marks the true endgame of hyperbitcoinization:
â Not when Bitcoin replaces fiat overnight.
â Not when nation-states voluntarily transition to a Bitcoin standard.
â But when robotic systems render traditional financial structures obsoleteâand do so by using Bitcoin as their base layer.
Ironically, it will not be Bitcoin itself that ultimately kills central banks. On the contrary, bitcoin will prolong the life of central banks. The thing that will eventually kill it will be automation, AI and robotics. The financial system, once built to manage the inefficiencies of human behavior, will no longer be necessary when human decision-making is removed from the equation.
đ Conclusion: Bitcoin fixes the system⌠but not how bitcoiners typically Expect
Bitcoin wonât kill central banksâit will force them to adapt. Private banks and debt-driven financial institutions will collapse, holding the worthless remains of the old financial system. Bitcoin will become the "central bank of central banks," serving as the global monetary base.
People will continue using fiat, but it will be Bitcoin-backed and deflationary fiat currency, benefiting the masses rather than financial elites. AI-driven economies will eventually accelerate the transition away from traditional currency, ensuring that Bitcoinâs role is not only inevitable but irreversible and futureproof.
In the end, Bitcoin doesnât destroy the systemâit reprograms it. The people win, financial elites lose, and the world enters an era of monetary transparency, efficiency, and decentralization, whether people realize it or not.
Part 1: The myth of decentralized adoption
Why do Bitcoiners cling to the idea of a decentralized, bottom-up global adoption? The notion that Bitcoin will spread in the same organic manner as past technological revolutionsâlike the car, the internet, or the smartphoneâis a myth. A perhaps comforting narrative, but a false one.
â Bitcoin is not like other technologies
Comparing Bitcoinâs adoption to previous technological shifts reveals a crucial difference. The car replaced the horse, the internet replaced the mailing system, and the smartphone replaced landlines. These were all existing, largely decentralized, network-based systems operating in a free(ish) market. Their adoption curves followed a natural, emergent process: individuals and businesses recognized their value and gradually integrated them into everyday life. Bottom-up adoption made sense.
Bitcoin, however, does not seek to replace a decentralized or free-market system. It is not up against a scattered network of incumbents competing in a market-driven way. Instead, it is challenging the final bossâthe central banking system, a structure that is, by design, highly centralized and resistant to disruption.
To assume Bitcoinâs adoption will mimic that of past innovations is to indulge in a mirageâa romanticized belief rather than a probable reality. This illusion may stem from classical economic theories, particularly Adam Smithâs notion of the "economically rational human being." But by now, it should be clear: most people are not economically rational actors. Libertariansâheavily overrepresented among early Bitcoin adoptersâmay be an exception, but they are not the norm.
â The reality: Bitcoinâs adoption will be centralized
Bitcoin is already infiltrating existing power structures, spreading like a memetic virus through the minds of policymakers, financial institutions, and central banks. Yet many Bitcoiners fail to grasp the implications of this.
Adoption will not happen through grassroots movements of individuals choosing to âsave in Bitcoinâ or businesses adopting Lightning for payments. A small fraction may opt-in voluntarily, but the overwhelming majority will not. Bitcoinâs real adoption will come from the top downâthrough centralized implementation, not decentralized choice.
âď¸ Hereâs how it will most likely unfold:
1. Central banks will (inevitably) dip their toes inâfirst through careful reserve allocations, then by leveraging Bitcoinâs properties in financial systems (ie printing money in different ways to acquire additional bitcoin).
2. A game-theoretic domino effect will ensue, following an inevitable slippery slope, where some nations manage to acquire more Bitcoin than others, leading to competitive pressures that force further acquisitions. Or as we know it: FOMO. But this time the FOMO is not among retailers, or even among corporations, but among central bankers and nation states. This will play out via a global print war, where central banks leverage fiat money to acquire a maximal amount of bitcoin.
3. Fiat currencies will persist, ironically, but they will become Bitcoin-backed. The transition will be somewhat invinsible to normal people, who will still use traditional payment railsâcash, cards, mobile appsâwithout realizing the underlying monetary standard has shifted.
4. Deflation will swiftly replace inflation as the economic baseline. As Bitcoinâs purchasing power increases, prices of goods and services will gradually decline in real terms. Again â without people even realizing the true reason behind â bitcoin.
The end result? A hyperbitcoinized world where most people are unwitting, indirect, Bitcoin users.
𤥠The Irony: Central banks survive, private banks collapse
Many Bitcoiners assume that hyperbitcoinization will destroy central banks. But the reality is central banks will likely be the biggest winners among legacy institutions. Hereâs why:
Central banks do not operate as profit-seeking businesses; they control the monetary base itself. Unlike private banks, they do not depend on debt issuance for survival.
When Bitcoin enters the monetary system, it will collapse the traditional debt-based financial model that commercial banks rely on. Credit expansion, fractional reserve banking, and complex derivatives will become obsolete.
Private banks, investment firms, and debt-reliant financial institutions will be left "holding the bag"âholding the worthless remains of a collapsing financial system while central banks transition to Bitcoin reserves.
đ Bitcoin Becomes the "Central Bank of Central Banks"
In the new system, Bitcoin will act as the ultimate reserve asset, similar to how gold once functioned.
Central banks will continue to compete to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible, securing their relevance and survival.
As fiat currencies become Bitcoin-backed, people will continue transacting with familiar digital payment railsâbut the fundamental monetary base will have shifted.
The system will transform from an inflationary model benefiting financial elites to a deflationary model benefiting the general public.
This means Bitcoin wonât destroy central banksâit will force them to evolve into Bitcoin reserve custodians, while commercial banks and rent-seeking financial institutions are wiped out.
đ´ Part 2: The myth of user friendliness â when bitcoin becomes invisible đ´
Long-term, once the dynamic above have unfolded, the financial ecosystem development will be co-evolving with the world of robotics and AI. This will produce a situation where monetary transactions will be outsourced to AI and automationâjust as historical elites never needed to physically handle money, delegating financial tasks to their butlers, servants or accountants.
Now all people will have butlers, servants and accountants, but they will be different types of physical and digital helpers. When robotsânot humansâstart managing daily transactions, the usability concerns that often plague Bitcoin adoption narratives become entirely irrelevant. AI and machines donât need a user-friendly UI. They simply execute transactions in the most optimal way, in accordance with the needs of their owners (humans) likely via peer-to-peer (P2P) settlement on a Bitcoin-based Layer 2 solution or elsewhere in the bitcoin ecosystem.
đŞ This (part 2) marks the true endgame of hyperbitcoinization:
â Not when Bitcoin replaces fiat overnight.
â Not when nation-states voluntarily transition to a Bitcoin standard.
â But when robotic systems render traditional financial structures obsoleteâand do so by using Bitcoin as their base layer.
Ironically, it will not be Bitcoin itself that ultimately kills central banks. On the contrary, bitcoin will prolong the life of central banks. The thing that will eventually kill it will be automation, AI and robotics. The financial system, once built to manage the inefficiencies of human behavior, will no longer be necessary when human decision-making is removed from the equation.
đ Conclusion: Bitcoin fixes the system⌠but not how bitcoiners typically Expect
Bitcoin wonât kill central banksâit will force them to adapt. Private banks and debt-driven financial institutions will collapse, holding the worthless remains of the old financial system. Bitcoin will become the "central bank of central banks," serving as the global monetary base.
People will continue using fiat, but it will be Bitcoin-backed and deflationary fiat currency, benefiting the masses rather than financial elites. AI-driven economies will eventually accelerate the transition away from traditional currency, ensuring that Bitcoinâs role is not only inevitable but irreversible and futureproof.
In the end, Bitcoin doesnât destroy the systemâit reprograms it. The people win, financial elites lose, and the world enters an era of monetary transparency, efficiency, and decentralization, whether people realize it or not.