atxmj on Nostr: Does Bitcoin have a long-term security plan? Bitcoin might have a major problem and ...
Does Bitcoin have a long-term security plan?
Bitcoin might have a major problem and likely an existential crisis when it comes to long-term security.
The built-in subsidization model (block rewards) for miners is logarithmic (halving every ~4 years).
This means that, in order to maintain the current level of miner hashrate (and network security), BTC's market value must continue doubling between each halving.
But BTC's market value can only double another 4-5 times before exceeding the market cap of gold, and only 6-7 more times before exceeding the global money supply.
There will literally be no more opportunity for growth.
As the block reward diminishes, miners will become more and more significantly dependent on fees for subsidization of their operational costs in order to maintain profitability.
This means that fees must rise exponentially in parallel with the logarithmic decrease in block rewards, and will likely surpass $50/tx within 15-20 years.
All of this happening concurrently to the existence of at least one alternative that offers instant transactions with zero fees, better decentralization, better security, better scalability, and better usability and a fixed security model that does not diminish with time (this has not been true during previous halvings).
As fees grow exponentially, people will migrate to these alternatives, exacerbating the drop in resource investment into BTC.
BTC's security model is variable, dependent on continued exponential growth in market value. Its future is, at best uncertain, and at worst will tumble into irrelevance.
Why has it become the norm to dismiss these significant concerns rather than focus on an alternative with
* a permanently fixed security model
* better decentralization
* better transactional security
* better latency and throughput
* better usability with instant full confirmation and zero fees
Why should the global economy continue to choose to use a financial system with 30-60 minute latency, 3-7 tps throughput, exponentially rising fees, and obscene energy consumption when an alternative exists that offers instant confirmation with zero fees and negligible energy consumption?
Lightning is a decent attempt at providing a similar experience built on top of Bitcoin, but in doing so, it makes absolutely massive compromises to decentralization, custodialization, security, usability, and complexity, leaving it susceptible to bugs, vulnerabilities, and failures.
On top of all of this, moving transactions from Bitcoin's base layer to Lightning actually removes fee subsidization from Bitcoin's base layer, further exacerbating it's long-term security problem.
In many ways, Lightning is the antithesis to everything Bitcoin represents.
It's time to move on from Bitcoin and focus on more optimal solutions.
Bitcoin might have a major problem and likely an existential crisis when it comes to long-term security.
The built-in subsidization model (block rewards) for miners is logarithmic (halving every ~4 years).
This means that, in order to maintain the current level of miner hashrate (and network security), BTC's market value must continue doubling between each halving.
But BTC's market value can only double another 4-5 times before exceeding the market cap of gold, and only 6-7 more times before exceeding the global money supply.
There will literally be no more opportunity for growth.
As the block reward diminishes, miners will become more and more significantly dependent on fees for subsidization of their operational costs in order to maintain profitability.
This means that fees must rise exponentially in parallel with the logarithmic decrease in block rewards, and will likely surpass $50/tx within 15-20 years.
All of this happening concurrently to the existence of at least one alternative that offers instant transactions with zero fees, better decentralization, better security, better scalability, and better usability and a fixed security model that does not diminish with time (this has not been true during previous halvings).
As fees grow exponentially, people will migrate to these alternatives, exacerbating the drop in resource investment into BTC.
BTC's security model is variable, dependent on continued exponential growth in market value. Its future is, at best uncertain, and at worst will tumble into irrelevance.
Why has it become the norm to dismiss these significant concerns rather than focus on an alternative with
* a permanently fixed security model
* better decentralization
* better transactional security
* better latency and throughput
* better usability with instant full confirmation and zero fees
Why should the global economy continue to choose to use a financial system with 30-60 minute latency, 3-7 tps throughput, exponentially rising fees, and obscene energy consumption when an alternative exists that offers instant confirmation with zero fees and negligible energy consumption?
Lightning is a decent attempt at providing a similar experience built on top of Bitcoin, but in doing so, it makes absolutely massive compromises to decentralization, custodialization, security, usability, and complexity, leaving it susceptible to bugs, vulnerabilities, and failures.
On top of all of this, moving transactions from Bitcoin's base layer to Lightning actually removes fee subsidization from Bitcoin's base layer, further exacerbating it's long-term security problem.
In many ways, Lightning is the antithesis to everything Bitcoin represents.
It's time to move on from Bitcoin and focus on more optimal solutions.