flix on Nostr: Complex systems are extremely difficult to model. Any predictions made regarding a ...

Complex systems are extremely difficult to model. Any predictions made regarding a complex system should be full of caveats and disclaimers. Long term predictions are especially suspect. Too many unknowns, too difficult to isolate causal relations when there are 100+ independent variables in the equation.

Anybody making long term economic, weather, climate, social, tech predictions should be viewed as an author of fiction.

Anybody asking for money based on fiction is a scammer.

I love sci-fi, but it should not be used to drive policy.