LynAlden on Nostr: I’ve been studying the Cairo real estate market both because I’m a buyer and ...
I’ve been studying the Cairo real estate market both because I’m a buyer and because it’s useful inflation research to witness the process of how quickly/slowly and evenly/unevenly prices adjust to an FX devaluation.
Some real estate in bubbly areas jumps in local nominal price quickly; other areas barely move in price. Egypt doesn’t have a ton of foreign real estate buyers (compared to say, Chinese nationals buying Thai property) so prices tend to be low. There is however a lot of construction supply growth.
Was looking at a new villa today which is four stories and six bedrooms, in order to house a multigenerational family (nine total people). Made of brick and cement at its core and with beautiful finishing. Has an elevator, which is important for the seniors of the family that have trouble with stairs. Nice view, yard, community.
It’s comparable in price to a random house half its size in US suburbia that is made of cheap wood and drywall that will last a third as long. So the price per square foot compared to that is half, and even less if quality-adjusted. Of course, with a much riskier legal and financial jurisdiction.
But then it can be paid for over seven years without interest (you just forgo the cash-up-front discount which is not all that big), in the local currency that doubles in supply every four years (20% annualized broad money growth), so you are basically shorting the currency.
Some real estate in bubbly areas jumps in local nominal price quickly; other areas barely move in price. Egypt doesn’t have a ton of foreign real estate buyers (compared to say, Chinese nationals buying Thai property) so prices tend to be low. There is however a lot of construction supply growth.
Was looking at a new villa today which is four stories and six bedrooms, in order to house a multigenerational family (nine total people). Made of brick and cement at its core and with beautiful finishing. Has an elevator, which is important for the seniors of the family that have trouble with stairs. Nice view, yard, community.
It’s comparable in price to a random house half its size in US suburbia that is made of cheap wood and drywall that will last a third as long. So the price per square foot compared to that is half, and even less if quality-adjusted. Of course, with a much riskier legal and financial jurisdiction.
But then it can be paid for over seven years without interest (you just forgo the cash-up-front discount which is not all that big), in the local currency that doubles in supply every four years (20% annualized broad money growth), so you are basically shorting the currency.