Anthony Towns [ARCHIVE] on Nostr: đź“… Original date posted:2015-08-31 đź“ť Original message: On 31 August 2015 at ...
đź“… Original date posted:2015-08-31
đź“ť Original message:
On 31 August 2015 at 03:18, CJP <cjp at ultimatestunts.nl> wrote:
> > I'm not sure the fine is necessarily small relative to the blockchain
> > fees, though (especially if the blockchain fee is zero...)? A long
> > chain might get fees into the 1% range, and for a moderate sized
> > payment ($5 coffee, 20 mBTC) that would be .2 mBTC, exceeding a 1kB
> > txn fee of .1 mBTC...
> You assume the present-day exchange rate.
​Well for concreteness, sure, but what I'm really assuming is that
blockchain txn fees maintain a small real value.
I think that's a reasonable assumption to some degree, though, because
we're assuming end users will bump their lightning channels at least once
every couple of years. That makes the blockchain fee comparable to an
annual account keeping fee on a bank account, which puts a ceiling of maybe
$10-$20 on blockchain fees. (If bitcoins fees go higher, then presumably
you'd be running lightning nodes off of a sidechain or altcoin with lower
fees, or you wouldn't be using lightning at all because debit cards are
cheaper).
A very simplistic estimate of the exchange rate in a very ambitious
> scenario: assume a future world of 10e9 people, who have all reached
> developed-nation wealth, and who use Bitcoin for all their finances.
> Each of them can have 2.1 mBTC of savings. Assuming the average
> developed-nation person has about $10e3 savings in today's dollars, 2.1
> mBTC savings in our scenario should be equivalent to $10e3 in today's
> dollars. So that is $4800 / mBTC
In that case $1 uBTC is $4.80, and 1 satoshi is about 5c; so you couldn't
charge a fee less than 1% for a $5 coffee, and couldn't spend less than 5c
when doing microtransactions.
(Well, obviously if you got to that point you'd *actually* either add more
precision to bitcoin, or use sidechains or altcoins at that point.
Actually, I guess you could just add more precision to lightning, but round
it off for the blockchain transactions)
> = $4.8 mln / BTC!
​List etiquette question: when people post numbers like this is it required
to drink a shot of whisky/tequilla and shout "to the moon!" ? ;)​
​Cheers,
aj
--
Anthony Towns <aj at erisian.com.au>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/lightning-dev/attachments/20150901/f7f6eb4e/attachment-0001.html>;
đź“ť Original message:
On 31 August 2015 at 03:18, CJP <cjp at ultimatestunts.nl> wrote:
> > I'm not sure the fine is necessarily small relative to the blockchain
> > fees, though (especially if the blockchain fee is zero...)? A long
> > chain might get fees into the 1% range, and for a moderate sized
> > payment ($5 coffee, 20 mBTC) that would be .2 mBTC, exceeding a 1kB
> > txn fee of .1 mBTC...
> You assume the present-day exchange rate.
​Well for concreteness, sure, but what I'm really assuming is that
blockchain txn fees maintain a small real value.
I think that's a reasonable assumption to some degree, though, because
we're assuming end users will bump their lightning channels at least once
every couple of years. That makes the blockchain fee comparable to an
annual account keeping fee on a bank account, which puts a ceiling of maybe
$10-$20 on blockchain fees. (If bitcoins fees go higher, then presumably
you'd be running lightning nodes off of a sidechain or altcoin with lower
fees, or you wouldn't be using lightning at all because debit cards are
cheaper).
A very simplistic estimate of the exchange rate in a very ambitious
> scenario: assume a future world of 10e9 people, who have all reached
> developed-nation wealth, and who use Bitcoin for all their finances.
> Each of them can have 2.1 mBTC of savings. Assuming the average
> developed-nation person has about $10e3 savings in today's dollars, 2.1
> mBTC savings in our scenario should be equivalent to $10e3 in today's
> dollars. So that is $4800 / mBTC
In that case $1 uBTC is $4.80, and 1 satoshi is about 5c; so you couldn't
charge a fee less than 1% for a $5 coffee, and couldn't spend less than 5c
when doing microtransactions.
(Well, obviously if you got to that point you'd *actually* either add more
precision to bitcoin, or use sidechains or altcoins at that point.
Actually, I guess you could just add more precision to lightning, but round
it off for the blockchain transactions)
> = $4.8 mln / BTC!
​List etiquette question: when people post numbers like this is it required
to drink a shot of whisky/tequilla and shout "to the moon!" ? ;)​
​Cheers,
aj
--
Anthony Towns <aj at erisian.com.au>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/lightning-dev/attachments/20150901/f7f6eb4e/attachment-0001.html>;