Circa Millions Picks
I went 1-4 last week, and I didn’t deserve any better. I had the Giants and Browns on the wrong side of blowouts, and the favored Falcons who lost outright to the Steelers. The only close games were the Dolphins (I lost) and the Cardinals (I won.)
But while the 1-4 leaves me less margin for error, I’m not sweating it too much. Week 1 is always a crapshoot because you’re making assumptions on limited current information.
The main hazard for Week 2 is overusing the information from Week 1, i.e., we have only a little more information for 2024
My Picks:
Lions -7 vs Buccaneers
This is my least favorite of the five. I was stuck on four and had to pick a final one. The Bucs looked good last week at home against a soft Washington team, but I’ll sell them high. The Lions at home should move the ball at will and get some pressure on Mayfield.
Seahawks -3.5 at Patriots
The Patriots were able to hide Jacoby Brissett with a lead in Week 1, and Brissett did a good job managing the game. But if the Seahawks score some points — which they should — Brissett will have to do more and get exposed. Maybe someone on the Seahawks (unlike the Bengals) can tackle Rhamondre Stevenson too.
Steelers -2.5 at Broncos
Bo Nix looked overwhelmed to me last week, and the Steelers defense is pretty good. Justin Fields is a wild card, plenty of upside and downside, but this is a good spot where he won’t have to do much to keep up with a substandard Broncos offense.
Texans -6.5 vs Bears
Caleb Williams has to play better than in Week 1, but this line seems so small for a game in Houston I feel like I must be missing something.
Falcons +6.5 at Eagles
Kirk Cousins looked bad last week, but I’ll buy low on a Falcons team that needs to get going and sell high on the Eagles after a big Week 1 win in Brazil.
Published at
2024-09-13 18:09:34Event JSON
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"content": "I went 1-4 last week, and I didn’t deserve any better. I had the Giants and Browns on the wrong side of blowouts, and the favored Falcons who lost outright to the Steelers. The only close games were the Dolphins (I lost) and the Cardinals (I won.)\n\nBut while the 1-4 leaves me less margin for error, I’m not sweating it too much. Week 1 is always a crapshoot because you’re making assumptions on limited current information.\n\nThe main hazard for Week 2 is overusing the information from Week 1, i.e., we have only a little more information for 2024\n\n**My Picks:**\n\n**Lions -7 vs Buccaneers**\n\nThis is my least favorite of the five. I was stuck on four and had to pick a final one. The Bucs looked good last week at home against a soft Washington team, but I’ll sell them high. The Lions at home should move the ball at will and get some pressure on Mayfield.\n\n**Seahawks -3.5 at Patriots**\n\nThe Patriots were able to hide Jacoby Brissett with a lead in Week 1, and Brissett did a good job managing the game. But if the Seahawks score some points — which they should — Brissett will have to do more and get exposed. Maybe someone on the Seahawks (unlike the Bengals) can tackle Rhamondre Stevenson too.\n\n**Steelers -2.5 at Broncos**\n\nBo Nix looked overwhelmed to me last week, and the Steelers defense is pretty good. Justin Fields is a wild card, plenty of upside and downside, but this is a good spot where he won’t have to do much to keep up with a substandard Broncos offense.\n\n**Texans -6.5 vs Bears**\n\nCaleb Williams has to play better than in Week 1, but this line seems so small for a game in Houston I feel like I must be missing something.\n\n**Falcons +6.5 at Eagles**\n\nKirk Cousins looked bad last week, but I’ll buy low on a Falcons team that needs to get going and sell high on the Eagles after a big Week 1 win in Brazil.",
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