bradmillscan on Nostr: Will Bitcoin crash in a debt deflation? BitcoinTINA used to talk about how bitcoin is ...
Will Bitcoin crash in a debt deflation?
BitcoinTINA used to talk about how bitcoin is moving from an illegitimate asset to a must own asset.
Bitcoin is only $500 B. Only ~1% of people have it.
Americans own $30 Trillion worth of stocks which are up ~50-70% since the March 2020 bottom … and that’s just Americans.
Compared to other assets which are extremely overvalued imo, Bitcoin has a lot of room to grow.
Correlation is transitory!
It can reach escape velocity & grow during a credit crunch / recession like the Web 2.0 tech companies did.
It can grow to $10 T marketcap during a deflationary decade. It might take a whole decade but as hundreds of millions of people, potentially billions, start to acquire BTC & save in sats, the value will go up even if the m2 money supply goes down.
It’s undervalued whether we are in a credit expansion cycle or a debt deflation bust.
Bitcoin would need a ~25X to hold the same value as gold on the world stage, it would be about $684,000 USD per BTC to have the same value as gold.
People ask, won’t bitcoin fail if it doesn’t become the one and only money? Doesn’t Bitcoin have to replace dollars and fiat currency? Credit creation can’t exist in a hyperbitcoinized world, and that’s a pipe dream, so Bitcoin will never rise to the value of gold and beyond.
Actually I think the premise that Bitcoin will destroy banks and fiat currencies is the hyperbolic extreme argument - aside from memes designed to provoke philosophical conversations to explore the harms of central banking and debt based money, I don’t know very many Bitcoiners who *seriously* think that Bitcoin has to completely replace the current money paradigms over the next decade or 2 for it to succeed.
Transitioning to a higher reserved banking system using Bitcoin as a reserve asset based on Jeff Booth’s argument that technology is deflationary and we should not fight that would make sense for improving wealth inequality even if we don’t see a Bitcoin Standard.
Right now we’re on the extreme end of fractional reserve. Money supply expands almost uncapped aside from LCR rules and interest rates.
Sound money and specifically the technological advancement of Bitcoin based sound money, can bring us back to a more sane fractional reserve system where money creation is constrained but not restricted like a money warehouse.
Wealth inequality should get better during a deflationary crisis, and if bitcoin keeps doing its thing, poor people will be saving in bitcoin and they will benefit over the decade during the massive wealth transfer that’s coming.
We don’t need fractional reserve banking nor debt money to disappear for bitcoin to serve humanity, we just need banking reform and a slow transition to an opt-in world reserve paradigm where BTC acts as 1 of the worlds reserve assets.
As Trace Mayer used to say; Bitcoin is the apex predator of money - and we are seeing gnashing of teeth as traditional finance people & politicians who think they know what money is struggle to understand Bitcoin.
We need free markets and sound money education, we need poor & middle class people to increase their financial literacy - and one way to encourage 2 billion people to start thinking about financial literacy is by starting to save in Bitcoin and learning about it.
BitcoinTINA used to talk about how bitcoin is moving from an illegitimate asset to a must own asset.
Bitcoin is only $500 B. Only ~1% of people have it.
Americans own $30 Trillion worth of stocks which are up ~50-70% since the March 2020 bottom … and that’s just Americans.
Compared to other assets which are extremely overvalued imo, Bitcoin has a lot of room to grow.
Correlation is transitory!
It can reach escape velocity & grow during a credit crunch / recession like the Web 2.0 tech companies did.
It can grow to $10 T marketcap during a deflationary decade. It might take a whole decade but as hundreds of millions of people, potentially billions, start to acquire BTC & save in sats, the value will go up even if the m2 money supply goes down.
It’s undervalued whether we are in a credit expansion cycle or a debt deflation bust.
Bitcoin would need a ~25X to hold the same value as gold on the world stage, it would be about $684,000 USD per BTC to have the same value as gold.
People ask, won’t bitcoin fail if it doesn’t become the one and only money? Doesn’t Bitcoin have to replace dollars and fiat currency? Credit creation can’t exist in a hyperbitcoinized world, and that’s a pipe dream, so Bitcoin will never rise to the value of gold and beyond.
Actually I think the premise that Bitcoin will destroy banks and fiat currencies is the hyperbolic extreme argument - aside from memes designed to provoke philosophical conversations to explore the harms of central banking and debt based money, I don’t know very many Bitcoiners who *seriously* think that Bitcoin has to completely replace the current money paradigms over the next decade or 2 for it to succeed.
Transitioning to a higher reserved banking system using Bitcoin as a reserve asset based on Jeff Booth’s argument that technology is deflationary and we should not fight that would make sense for improving wealth inequality even if we don’t see a Bitcoin Standard.
Right now we’re on the extreme end of fractional reserve. Money supply expands almost uncapped aside from LCR rules and interest rates.
Sound money and specifically the technological advancement of Bitcoin based sound money, can bring us back to a more sane fractional reserve system where money creation is constrained but not restricted like a money warehouse.
Wealth inequality should get better during a deflationary crisis, and if bitcoin keeps doing its thing, poor people will be saving in bitcoin and they will benefit over the decade during the massive wealth transfer that’s coming.
We don’t need fractional reserve banking nor debt money to disappear for bitcoin to serve humanity, we just need banking reform and a slow transition to an opt-in world reserve paradigm where BTC acts as 1 of the worlds reserve assets.
As Trace Mayer used to say; Bitcoin is the apex predator of money - and we are seeing gnashing of teeth as traditional finance people & politicians who think they know what money is struggle to understand Bitcoin.
We need free markets and sound money education, we need poor & middle class people to increase their financial literacy - and one way to encourage 2 billion people to start thinking about financial literacy is by starting to save in Bitcoin and learning about it.