kravietz 🦇 on Nostr: Vladimir Pastukhov, a Russian lawyer who left #Russia in 2000’s and is a researcher ...
Vladimir Pastukhov, a Russian lawyer who left #Russia in 2000’s and is a researcher at UCL since made an interesting observation recently. I will start from the end and his conclusion:
Fixing of this situation will mean for Ukraine a victory in the war, which will be perceived by public opinion as a defeat, and for Russia it will be a defeat, which the regime will sell at the price of victory.
I’ll come back to what “situation” he’s talking about in a moment, because I think the paradox he describes is more important:
For Russia, the goal of this war was to change the world balance of power in its favour and to oust the US and its allies from the territories that were once part of the USSR, and the expectations of the population were reduced to the “return” of Ukraine to the orbit of Russian influence. These goals have completely failed and expectations have not been fulfilled. Now Putin’s regime is trying to retroactively correct expectations by saying that the purpose of the war was precisely to seize territories. But this is nothing more than manipulation of consciousness, which will be revealed at the first serious crisis.
This is all accurate description of the current state of affairs: Russia controls <17% of #Ukraine territory which it has itself ruined, and not merely failed at the “regime change”, but achieved exactly the opposite: strengthening Ukrainian resistance, EU and NATO membership, flood of military and support for the country and actual expansion of #NATO (as opposed to imaginary, as presented before 2022). Now he looks at Ukraine’s goals:
The purpose of the war for Ukraine was to defend its independence and sovereignty. In my opinion, these goals have been fully achieved: a year and a half later, Ukraine remains a capable state.
Now about the paradox caused by very high expectations:
But expectations were high: they were focused on the return of all occupied territories, which is achievable only as a prospective goal. Therefore, although disengagement and stabilisation along the established front line is an obvious success of the Ukrainian resistance, in the mass consciousness it is perceived almost as a defeat.
As you can see, Pastukhov is deeply pessimistic about the short-term outcome of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and he’s got valid reasons for that, if your time frame for analysis is only this year. Yet, he believes that even if full liberation of Ukrainian territory won’t be possible, the strategic goals of Ukraine have been achieved in excess, while Russian goals haven’t been achieved at all.
P.S. I still believe Ukraine Armed Forces have lots of surprises vested, because that’s what they have been consistently doing for the last year.
Source: https://t.me/v_pastukhov/803
Fixing of this situation will mean for Ukraine a victory in the war, which will be perceived by public opinion as a defeat, and for Russia it will be a defeat, which the regime will sell at the price of victory.
I’ll come back to what “situation” he’s talking about in a moment, because I think the paradox he describes is more important:
For Russia, the goal of this war was to change the world balance of power in its favour and to oust the US and its allies from the territories that were once part of the USSR, and the expectations of the population were reduced to the “return” of Ukraine to the orbit of Russian influence. These goals have completely failed and expectations have not been fulfilled. Now Putin’s regime is trying to retroactively correct expectations by saying that the purpose of the war was precisely to seize territories. But this is nothing more than manipulation of consciousness, which will be revealed at the first serious crisis.
This is all accurate description of the current state of affairs: Russia controls <17% of #Ukraine territory which it has itself ruined, and not merely failed at the “regime change”, but achieved exactly the opposite: strengthening Ukrainian resistance, EU and NATO membership, flood of military and support for the country and actual expansion of #NATO (as opposed to imaginary, as presented before 2022). Now he looks at Ukraine’s goals:
The purpose of the war for Ukraine was to defend its independence and sovereignty. In my opinion, these goals have been fully achieved: a year and a half later, Ukraine remains a capable state.
Now about the paradox caused by very high expectations:
But expectations were high: they were focused on the return of all occupied territories, which is achievable only as a prospective goal. Therefore, although disengagement and stabilisation along the established front line is an obvious success of the Ukrainian resistance, in the mass consciousness it is perceived almost as a defeat.
As you can see, Pastukhov is deeply pessimistic about the short-term outcome of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and he’s got valid reasons for that, if your time frame for analysis is only this year. Yet, he believes that even if full liberation of Ukrainian territory won’t be possible, the strategic goals of Ukraine have been achieved in excess, while Russian goals haven’t been achieved at all.
P.S. I still believe Ukraine Armed Forces have lots of surprises vested, because that’s what they have been consistently doing for the last year.
Source: https://t.me/v_pastukhov/803