casey on Nostr: Predicting when #bitcoin hits $1M based on global liquidity growth: Let's do some ...
Predicting when #bitcoin hits $1M based on global liquidity growth:
Let's do some (bad) math!
What we know: #bitcoin is highly correlated to global liquidity (there are different ways to measure "global liquidity" but I am looking at the global M2 money supply of the world's top 21 central banks).
How we know this: Looking at the bitcoin price over global M2 on a log-log chart yields a straight line. This indicates a power law relationship. The R squared is 0.9 (!!) suggesting that 90% of the variance in btc price can be explained by changes in global M2. This indicates a strong correlation (Chart #1).
Now let's use this to create a simple model that predicts the bitcoin price for a given M2 value (Chart #2).
Using the model equation we can see that bitcoin will hit $1M when global liquidity reaches ~$142T. The question is, when will that happen?
If we assume that global liquidity continues to increase at the same average rate it has been for the last decade, then that will happen towards the end of 2029.
That means, bitcoin will reach $1M in about ~5 years time.
#bullish #BitcoinPrice #AnotherModel #GlobalLiquidity #liquidity
Let's do some (bad) math!
What we know: #bitcoin is highly correlated to global liquidity (there are different ways to measure "global liquidity" but I am looking at the global M2 money supply of the world's top 21 central banks).
How we know this: Looking at the bitcoin price over global M2 on a log-log chart yields a straight line. This indicates a power law relationship. The R squared is 0.9 (!!) suggesting that 90% of the variance in btc price can be explained by changes in global M2. This indicates a strong correlation (Chart #1).
Now let's use this to create a simple model that predicts the bitcoin price for a given M2 value (Chart #2).
Using the model equation we can see that bitcoin will hit $1M when global liquidity reaches ~$142T. The question is, when will that happen?
If we assume that global liquidity continues to increase at the same average rate it has been for the last decade, then that will happen towards the end of 2029.
That means, bitcoin will reach $1M in about ~5 years time.
#bullish #BitcoinPrice #AnotherModel #GlobalLiquidity #liquidity