Cyph3rp9nk on Nostr: The most important indicator you need to follow to know what is happening in this ...
The most important indicator you need to follow to know what is happening in this sovereign debt crisis is the move indicator which reflects the volatility of rates in the US bond market.
A low move indicates stable rates, while a high move indicates the probability of a rate change.
In practice, this means that a low move increases the demand for bonds and a high move decreases the demand due to uncertainty.
As you can see, since 2022 it has been impossible to stabilize the bond system, which means that the United States has problems of financing and refinancing sovereign debt.
They must lower it below 90 to make the debt palatable to buyers and this is only achieved when the central bank starts to buy back debt (QE).
Since the Fed is not in the mood, the other option is for Trump to force other countries to buy sovereign debt by negotiating tariffs.
Both paths would cause the move index to go down and the US to stop having funding problems and both paths lead to increased dollar liquidity which drives Bitcoin higher.
A low move indicates stable rates, while a high move indicates the probability of a rate change.
In practice, this means that a low move increases the demand for bonds and a high move decreases the demand due to uncertainty.
As you can see, since 2022 it has been impossible to stabilize the bond system, which means that the United States has problems of financing and refinancing sovereign debt.
They must lower it below 90 to make the debt palatable to buyers and this is only achieved when the central bank starts to buy back debt (QE).
Since the Fed is not in the mood, the other option is for Trump to force other countries to buy sovereign debt by negotiating tariffs.
Both paths would cause the move index to go down and the US to stop having funding problems and both paths lead to increased dollar liquidity which drives Bitcoin higher.