Lauren Weinstein on Nostr: There are MANY videos on #YouTube explaining the so-called "Monty Hall" paradox, some ...
There are MANY videos on #YouTube explaining the so-called "Monty Hall" paradox, some diving deeply into fairly complicated probability math.
The paradox is traced back to the very long-running "Let's Make a Deal" game show, hosted for many, many years by Monty Hall.
The paradox involves the prospect of staying with your choice of one of three doors that might contain the grand prize, or switching to another of the three doors once you're shown that one of the doors you didn't choose doesn't contain the prize.
While most people assume that staying with their current pick is a reasonable choice, the math says that you should actually (for best results in the long run) switch to the other available door. It's really quite a non-intuitive probability puzzle.
The irony is that Monty when asked about the paradox consistently insisted that the show never actually offered contestants the choice to switch doors, and that the paradox was actually based on a "what if" postulation not the actual procedure on the show!
The paradox is traced back to the very long-running "Let's Make a Deal" game show, hosted for many, many years by Monty Hall.
The paradox involves the prospect of staying with your choice of one of three doors that might contain the grand prize, or switching to another of the three doors once you're shown that one of the doors you didn't choose doesn't contain the prize.
While most people assume that staying with their current pick is a reasonable choice, the math says that you should actually (for best results in the long run) switch to the other available door. It's really quite a non-intuitive probability puzzle.
The irony is that Monty when asked about the paradox consistently insisted that the show never actually offered contestants the choice to switch doors, and that the paradox was actually based on a "what if" postulation not the actual procedure on the show!